NFL - NFC South Season Preview and Prediction
ATLANTA FALCONS
Last Season 11-5 (1st in NFC South, Lost in Super Bowl) 540 Points Scored, 406 Against
Quarterback 9/10 (Matt Ryan) - Matt Ryan was always considered a very good quarterback. However he became truly elite last season, leading the Falcons to within a breath of their 1st Super Bowl triumph. The veteran put up some amazing numbers including throwing for 4,944 yards and 38 Touchdowns, with only seven interceptions. Ryan has proved extremely durable over the years having not missed a starter for the Falcons since 2009.
Offence 9.5/10 - The Falcons were an offensive juggernaut last season and led the NFL in several categories, averaging an amazing 34 points per game. Atlanta finished 2016 in 1st place for overall points scored, offensive touchdowns and points per drive, in what was a balanced and highly explosive offense. Devonta Freeman proved a breakout star at running back, rushing for over 1000 yards at an average of nearly 5 yards per carry. Julio Jones is arguably the NFL’s best wide receiver with his explosive speed and amazing catching ability and, along with Mohamed Sanu, the Falcons have a varied and electric offense that is intact from last season.
Defence 7/10- The Falcons were not the most reliable defence last year, however they were capable of making big plays. Unfortunately this unit may well be remembered for collapsing in the Super Bowl, blowing a 28-3 lead to lose 35-28 to Tom Brady and the Patriots. A hallmark of the Falcons’ defence is their aggression and speed and, while they have not been the most reliable, there is plenty of upside with this young and talented group.
Prediction 11-5 (1st in NFC South)
I just think this is really talented team. The mental hurdle of getting over that devastating Super Bowl loss will prove their biggest challenge for mine. This offence looks like the best in the NFL, and the defence has added speed and youth. They are a genuine Super Bowl contender again in my opinion.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Last Season 7-9 (3rd in NFC South) 469 Points Scored, 454 Points Against
Quarterback 9.5/10 (Drew Brees) - The Saints will go as far as Drew Brees takes them once again. Even at 38, Brees remains one of the elite passers in the league who continues to carry his team and put-up big numbers. Brees threw for an astounding 5200 yards last year, completing 70% of his passes for 37 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. Few quarterbacks are given more control at the line of scrimmage, and Brees is perhaps the best in the NFL at reading what look a defence is giving him and providing accurate throws.
Offence 9.5/10 - The Saints remain one of the most dynamic and best offences in the NFL, with Brees’ passing attack and a better then anticipated running game last season. Mark Ingram has become one of the league’s best all-round backs, carrying the ball strongly last year as well as catching some passes. Veteran running back Adrian Peterson will provide valuable back up. The development of Michael Thomas, and the acquisition of Ted Ginn Jr, means Brees will have plenty of dangerous targets again this season.
Defence 6/10 - The Saints’ defence has been a bit of a laughing stock in recent years, with their ability to give up big plays and concede huge numbers across the season. Certainly it has been the main factor in the team regressing to outside the playoffs in each of the past 3 seasons, with a near worst NFL defence in each season. However, they did show some progress last year playing better than their 27th overall defensive ranking. They handled the run better and were improved in short-yardage and goal-line situations. Where the improvement needs to come this year is to create more turnovers and pressure on the quarterback.
Prediction 10-6 (2nd in AFC South, Wild Card Team)
I'm tipping the Saints to be perhaps the biggest surprise in the NFL this year and make the playoffs. Mostly considered the favourite to run last in this Division, this is a side stacked with young talent. However plenty of it is unproven. The Saints will be wildly entertaining again as per usual, and I expect Drew Brees to be elite once again. The biggest improvement I am expecting is in their defence which, if they can just get to being half decent, will enable the offense to carry this team into the playoffs.
CAROLINA PANTHERS
Last Season 6-10 (Last in NFC South) 369 Points Scored, 402 Points Against
Quarterback 7.5/10 (Cam Newton) - Cam Newton regressed last season after his NFL MVP heroics in 2015 where he led the Panthers all the way to the Super Bowl. Newton took a couple of steps backwards in 2016, suffering a career low in completion percentage at just 52% and managing just 19 touchdowns to 14 interceptions. No one doubts Newton’s immense talent, however he often looked disinterested last season and teams worked out his style of play somewhat. Whilst he remains as quick as ever, he will need to pass better from the pocket and show better leadership if he is to get his side back to the promised land.
Offence - 7/10 - In the 2015 season, the Panthers were high rolling as the Number 1 offence in the NFL in scoring over 31 points per game. However, the Panthers failed to live up to expectations last season, dropping to 15th overall and averaging around 23 points per game. The Panthers lost six games by three points or less, with the offence unable to create the big plays in the clutch moments late in games. At running back, veteran Jonathan Stewart returns, but is at the back end of his career, so expect exciting 1st Round draft pick Christian McCaffery to get plenty of time there as a younger and more dynamic option. Greg Olsen was as reliable as ever at tight end last year, proving Newton’s favourite target, but wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin will have to lift from a disappointing season.
Defence 7/10 - The Panthers’ defence was nowhere near the intimidating force it was in 2105 last season, giving up over 25 points per game. Carolina’s secondary had huge problems last season as they really struggled to get past to the loss of Josh Norman. On the positive side, the Panthers were still able to rush the quarterback, finishing with 47 sacks which was the 2nd best in the NFL.
Prediction 8-8 (3rd in NFC South)
I just don't trust Cam Newton to come out and have another great season like he did in 2015. To me he hasn’t evolved his game enough in terms of his passing accuracy, and teams are playing him differently. There is no doubt they are a danger team, Carolina, however I think this is a very strong division this season and I think they have been overtaken by a couple of teams.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
Last Season 9-7 (2nd in NFC South, Missed Playoffs) 354 Points Scored, 369 Against
Quarterback - 7.5/10 (James Winston) - Jameis Winston showed tremendous improvement last year as a young quarterback, looking to break through to one of the consistently elite quarterbacks in the NFL. He threw for over 4000 yards, with a completion percentage over 60% and threw 28 touchdowns to 18 interceptions. Whilst Winston is a very talented and exciting playmaker, he will need to cut down on the 42 turnovers (33 interceptions and 9 lost fumbles) he has had over the past 2 seasons. The Bucs expect him to have more time to throw the football behind a better offensive line, which should give him a great platform to really break through even further this season.
Offense 7/10 - The Bucs were a bit inconsistent at times on offense last season, averaging around 22 points per game. They have some weapons with wide receiver Mike Evans catching 96 passes for 1,321 yards and 12 touchdowns. Evans was often a one-man show last year, however the Bucs have added DeSean Jackson and OJ Howard and look far more dangerous this season with varied options. It remains to be seen whether the Bucs will be able to run the ball effectively this season with Doug Martin missing the first three games, serving a suspension for PEDs, and few NFL exposed ready backs underneath him.
Defence 6.5/10- The Bucs’ defence was middle of the road last year, allowing around 23 points per game. However they improved as the season went on, really carrying the team late in the season as they surged to within an inch of the playoffs. The Bucs did very little in free agency or the draft in terms of bolstering their defence, and will instead be relying on continued improvements from last year’s group.
Prediction 7-9 (3rd in NFC South)
This should be the year the Bucs break through and make the playoffs, for me. However I can't quite trust them. They were really strong in the back half of last season and have added further weapons to what is a young and talented offense. Jameis Winston still makes too many mistakes for me, and they have not added to their defence this season. I expect them to take a slight step backwards.