My Best 4 Bets for NRL Finals Week 1
Sydney Roosters (2nd) v Brisbane Broncos (3rd) @ Allianz Stadium
BET - Sydney Roosters -4.5
1. You just can't be missing key players in the spine at this time of year, and the Broncos are missing 2 of them in Darius Boyd and Andre McCullough.
2. Being underdogs and undermanned, I think the Broncos needed home ground advantage here to even things out, and they couldn't manage that.
3. The Roosters are fully fit, with Dylan Napa and Aiden Guerra back from a rest and Daniel Tupou back from injury.
4. The Roosters have not lost to the Broncos at home since 2012, already beating them once at Allianz this season.
5. I just think the Roosters have a few advantages here, including a fully fit side and playing at home, and can beat the Broncos by a try or more.
Melbourne Storm (1st) v Parramatta Eels (4th) @ AAMI Park
BET = Under 39.5 Total Match Points
1. When these sides met earlier in the year at AAMI Park, there were just 28 points scored between them.
2. In 2015, when the sides met in Sydney again, there were under 30 points scored between the teams.
3. The Storm are an incredible defensive side, conceding an average of just over 12 points per game.
4. The Eels are a side capable of getting into a grinding type of game, winning some low scoring contests this season.
5. I just think both defences might get on top here and this game will be low scoring.
Manly Sea Eagles (6th) v Penrith Panthers (7th) @ Allianz Stadium
BET = Over 40.5 Total Match Points
1. Whilst there were only 40 points scored between the 2 teams last week, there were several blown scoring opportunities.
2. 5 of the past 7 games involving the Panthers have seen the score between the 2 teams go over 40 combined points.
3. 7 of Manly’s last 8 games have seen the score between the 2 teams go over 40 points combined.
4. Both these sides prefer to attack than defend, in my opinion.
5. I just see this as the most open of the 4 games this week, with both sides capable of scoring 20+ points.
Cronulla Sharks v North Queensland Cowboys @ Allianz Stadium
BET = North Queensland Cowboys +8.5
1. The Cowboys pushed the Sharks earlier this year in Sydney leading 14-0 before going down 18-14.
2. The Sharks have had patchy home-form this year, winning just 5 from 12 games in which they were the home side.
3. The Cowboys actually, finally, are having a good run with injuries and have little to lose here.
4. The Sharks have often struggled with the favourite’s tag this year, winning games by narrow margins.
5. I'm not convinced the Cowboys can win, however I think they can really make the Sharks earn this one, and 8.5 start is a big one.