My Best 5 Bets for Round 5 (Line and Unders/Overs Betting)
1. Canterbury Bulldogs v Brisbane Broncos @ ANZ Stadium
BET = Canterbury Bulldogs (+8.5)
1. There is expected to be heavy rain all day and night on Thursday in Sydney, which could make for a bog track and a game which is very hard to put a margin in on a team.
2. Most NRL teams that get a flogging the week before turn up with plenty of enthusiasm and hit back. Even if the Dogs don't win, I'm expecting a competitive display.
3. The Broncos biggest winning margin this year was 8 points against the Sharks in Round 1.
4. If you take away last week’s disastrous performance against the Sea Eagles, the Bulldogs had been gritty in their two previous losses. Against two unbeaten sides in the Storm and Roosters, they lost by just 6 and 4 points respectively.
5. The Broncos’ attack hasn't been firing on all cylinders in their past two games, registering just 12 points against the Storm and 13 points against the Raiders.
2. Canberra Raiders v Parramatta Eels @ GIO Stadium
BET = Parramatta (+7.5)
1. The Eels’ forwards won't be bullied by this Canberra pack.
2. I think the Eels have been flat the past couple of weeks, so I'm expecting a reaction from them this week.
3. Outside of the Tigers’ game which was more like a training run for the Raiders, their attack has struggled to click this year. In the games outside the Tigers’ games they are averaging just 14 points per game this year.
4. Even when they were decimated with injury, and with nothing to play for at the back end of last year, the Eels put up a brave fight in Canberra, only to go down 28-18.
5. The Eels’ defence has been reasonably stout this year, despite their attacking struggles in the past two games. They have conceded just 74 points in 4 games at an average of 18 points per game.
3. Melbourne Storm v Penrith Panthers @ AAMI Park
BET = Over 35.5 Total Match Points
1. Penrith is one of the best attacking sides in the competition. After their poor performance in Round 1, they have scored 88 points in their past three games, at an average of just under 30 per game.
2. AAMI Park is one of the quicker surfaces in the game, and should allow both sides to throw the ball around.
3. In their 8 games combined this season, the total match points have eclipsed 35 points in 6 of the 8 games.
4. Melbourne's attack looked to click into gear in the second half last week, with Billy Slater starting to find his rhythm again.
5. Penrith are not the sort of team that get dragged into too many grinding type games.
4. New Zealand Warriors v Gold Coast Titans @ Mount Smart Stadium
BET = Gold Coast Titans (+6.5)
1. My main success in their tips this year has been potting the Warriors, so why stop now!
2. The Warriors have won just one game this year, and their biggest winning margin was 4 points against last year’s wooden spooners, Newcastle.
3. Despite only winning 1 from 4 themselves, the Titans have proven themselves over the past 18 months as a side that fights for the full 80 minutes. They were beaten by 13+ just 3 times last year, so when they lose it is usually a close game.
4. The Titans’ attack has not been too shabby at all this year, despite starting the year slowly. They have scored 96 points, at an average of 24 points per game. If they can come up to that mark again, they are very unlikely to be beaten by a big margin.
5. I come back to my main point, how can you trust the Warriors? Kieran Foran might be back, however he is going to be rusty, and the Warriors don't look like blowing any side out at the moment.
5. St George Illawarra Dragons v Wests Tigers @ ANZ Stadium
BET = Over 37.5 Total match points
1. The Dragons’ attack has been firing on all cylinders this year. They have scored 100 points in the opening four rounds, at an average of 25 per game.
2. The Tigers are not the sort of team that show much resolve in defence. They have already conceded 122 points in their first four games, at an average of over 30 per game.
3. The Tigers’ attack, whilst it has misfired over the opening month, enjoyed some success against the Dragons last season, scoring 28 points against them in a comfortable win at ANZ Stadium.
4. If you combine these teams having played 8 games, only 2 of those matches have fallen below 38 points as a total match score.
5. Saints are playing confident footy right now, and the Tigers are one of those teams that can score some points when they are in the mood. An afternoon game means plenty of points for mine.