NRL Round 1 Preview and Prediction - St George Illawarra Dragons V Penrith Panthers @ Jubilee Oval

St George Illawarra Dragons (0-0) v Penrith Panthers (0-0) @ UOW Jubilee Stadium
 
Preview - Two sides at the opposite end of the Premiership market lock horns in Round 1 as the Panthers travel south to Kogarah to take on the Dragons on Saturday afternoon. The Dragons are given little hope by many this season, coming off a 10th place finish in 2016 and having not recruited any big players in the off-season. There was some conjecture in the off-season whether Paul McGregor would hold on to his job as the Club conducted a review of their football operations. McGregor was given a stay of execution, however, being off contract at the end of this year, will need results early in the year to keep the wolves at bay.  In the Charity Shield the Dragons were well beaten by South Sydney 36-18, and looked to have issues on both sides of the ball heading into this game.

Penrith, on the other hand, are the equal $8 favourites to win the Premiership in 2017 after a hugely promising 2016 in which they finished in 6th spot and made it to the second week of the finals. With a young and deep roster, Penrith played an exciting brand of football in 2016 with plenty of ball movement and second phase play. Despite resting several of their biggest stars, the depth of Penrith's roster was on show at the Auckland Nines as they made it all the way to the final with a relatively unheralded squad. 
 
History - The Dragons have a good record overall against the Panthers having won 18 from 30 games against the mountain men. However, that is offset somewhat by the Panthers winning 5 from their past 7. Last season, the sides played out a scrappy affair in Wollongong with the Dragons prevailing through a late try to Josh Dugan.
 
St George Illawarra Scouting Report - The Dragons have decided to go with Tim Lafai in the centres ahead of someone like Kurt Mann who played in various positions last season. Dragons’ new recruits Cameron McInnes and Paul Vaughan win starting roles at hooker and the front row respectively. The most contentious selection is that of Josh McCrone who has been a bit of a journeyman halfback over the years and struggled in the Charity Shield. McCrone will be strong defensively and provide some leadership, however I am struggling to see how he is going to inject some quality attack and real creativity to a Dragons’ side desperately lacking some spark. On the bench is a young five-eight in Jai Field who has shown plenty of potential last season in the Holden Cup, and in the Auckland Nines and Dragons’ pre-season games. Field has electric pace and a swift passing game and, despite his slight build, is a real player to look out for in the future. 
 
Penrith Panthers Scouting Report - Both Penrith wingers in Dean Whare and Peta Hiku are back in First Grade after 12 months and 9 months out of the game respectively. Whilst both are Kiwi internationals, I think they might be a bit rusty first up here and Saints might target them with a few high balls. Te Maire Martin, the prodigiously talented young Number 6, also makes his return from shoulder surgery after he missed the majority of his debut season. Martin is an outstanding young ball player with quick feet; however I'm sure his shoulders will be tested by some of the Dragons’ edge back rowers in this game. Interestingly Peter Wallace has maintained his place as the Panthers Number 1 hooker with Mitch Rein named on an extended bench. Rein will be desperate to play some part against his old Club, however that will probably only be known closer to kick off. 
 
Verdict - Panthers 1-12
 
I am very tempted to tip the Dragons here at home on what will be a wet and soggy Kogarah Oval. I think Penrith come into this game with a bit too much hype about them. Being equal Premiership favourites can be a burden to carry for a relatively young and inexperienced team. The huge wet that has descended on Sydney this week won't suit the Panthers free flowing style of football and they will need to temper some of their offloading and cavalier passing in the conditions.

For the Dragons however, I think it will suit their game plan which is a lot more fundamental and I think they will try and take Penrith on through the middle of the field. Even with all those factors in the Dragons’ favour, I was left really uninspired from their performance in the Charity Shield and I'm still struggling to see where this team are going to worry sides with the football. Their spine containing the likes of Dugan, McCrone and McInnes just does not look anywhere near threatening or creative enough to worry sides and match sides if the game becomes open and attacking. I’m sure the Dragons will have their tackling boots on here, and I would not be surprised if they really give it to the Panthers early in this game. However, I am going to stick with the Panthers in what I think will be a much closer game than people think.