NRL Round 1 Preview and Prediction - North Queensland Cowboys v Canberra Raiders @ 1300 Smiles Stadium

North Queensland Cowboys (0-0) v Canberra Raiders (0-0) @ 1300 Smiles Stadium
 
Preview - We get a Round 1 blockbuster this year as both of last year’s beaten Preliminary Finalists in the Cowboys and Raiders collide at 1300 Smiles Stadium in Townsville (when). Whilst the Cowboys were blown away by the Cronulla Sharks in their Preliminary Final, the Raiders fell agonisingly short of what would have been a first Grand Final appearance in 20 years being beaten by 2 points against the Melbourne Storm. The Cowboys put up a valiant defence of their title, however looked tired and jaded by year’s end as the top of being defending Premiers increased.

Throughout 2016, they were incredibly hard to beat at 1300 Smiles Stadium, winning 11 of their 12 games with their one loss coming against the Storm without Johnathan Thurston. The Raiders were a force to be reckoned with in 2016, finishing the regular season in second place after a barnstorming 10-game winning streak to conclude the regular season. The Raiders were dynamite with the football being the leading points scorers in the NRL by well over 100 points. Their mix of the power game up front and speed and skill out wide made them the entertainers of the NRL in 2016, however this team will have to play with the weight of far greater expectation in 2017. 
 
History - Whilst the Raiders have won 21 of 37 overall against the Cowboys, they have a shocking record in Townsville, having lost their 8 matches at 1300 Smiles Stadium. Last time these teams met last year was in Canberra where the Raiders won 26-12 with the Cowboys missing their Origin stars. 
 
North Queensland Cowboys Scouting Report - The Cowboys head into this Round 1 blockbuster with just about a clean bill of health and no real surprises in their line-up. For me, the only change I would make is to make room for the electric talent of Kalyn Ponga ahead of one of the Cowboys outside backs; however it looks like he might miss out altogether. I think this season, for the Cowboys to contend for a title, a few of their forwards are going to have to step up to ease the burden on Jason Taumalolo. Veteran Scott Bolton gets that opportunity to step up in Round 1, winning a start in the front row alongside Matt Scott. Without James Tamou, and with Matt Scott battling a few injuries, I think Thurston might not have the same time and space he has been afforded over the years. I also think it is a big year for Lachlan Coote at fullback who I thought was well below his best last season. 
 
Canberra Raiders Scouting Report - The Raiders’ Coach Ricky Stuart has put his faith in youth by selecting exciting young prospect Nick Cotric to make his debut on the wing for the Raiders. Cotric showed plenty of talent and skill playing fullback and centre in the Raiders NYC team last season, however will be in for a stern test here on debut with Thurston likely to target him with a few kicks. A huge blow for the Raiders is having Captain and goal kicker Jarrod Crocker out for the first month of the season, meaning Englishman Elliott Whitehead shifts into the centres for this game. Clay Priest wins a start in the front row, whilst Luke Bateman starts at lock in a Raiders’ team that has a few changes from the side that went so close to making it to the Grand Final last season.
 
Verdict - Cowboys by 8 + 
 
I just think the Raiders come into this game a bit under cooked and missing a couple of key pieces. The Cowboys won 11 from 12 at home last season, and particularly early in the season are very hard to beat in the hot and humid conditions in Townsville. I actually think overall the Raiders will have a better season than the Cowboys, however the home side are at full strength here and I think will look to expose the Canberra defence on the edges and out wide. I think this game will be the highest scoring game of the round as these teams have a heap of attacking talent and really like to play an uptempo brand of football. I also think, given the fast track and heat in Townsville, teams are going to really struggle to defend against back-to-back sets and momentum swings. I think the Raiders might be able to score 20 points here; however I don't think their defence will hold up and I think the Cowboys will score closer to 30 to win what will be an entertaining game.