The Battlers 5 Big NRL Predictions For Round 1 (Written)

5 Reasons why I like these 5 Predictions

The Battler's Big 5
 
1. Canterbury Bulldogs (+1.5) v Melbourne Storm @ Belmore Oval
 
* Wet and slippery conditions will suit the Bulldogs big pack who should be able to get on top.
* Bog track should slow the Melbourne attack down and slow the ruck speed down limiting the influence of Cameron Smith.  
* Canterbury played poorly at Belmore last year and will want to rectify that. Perhaps more motivated then Melbourne here. 
* Melbourne have lost the likes of Koribete and Proctors and are also without Billy Slater. They are experimenting with Munster at 6 and Tonumaipea at fullback. Might take time for that to gel. 
* I am expecting an early Bulldogs ambush here and them to jump them out to a lead before either holding on to win or losing by a field goal! 
 
2. St George Illawarra Dragons (+7.5) v Penrith Panthers @ Kogarah
 
* I don't like teams giving away big points in Round 1 (especially on the road here with Penrith). Even the lower ranked sides are fresh and committed and ready to play close to their best.
* The Dragons won 8 from 12 at home last season despite missing the finals, they love playing at Kogarah. 
* The wet and slippery conditions will not suit Penrith's style of play one bit, in terms of their ball movement and desire to offload at every opportunity. Penrith will make some costly errors.  
* Penrith have 2 wingers (Hiku and Whare) and a five eight (Martin) who have not played football in 10 months. Going to be rusty and perhaps a bit gun shy.  
* Saints will give Penrith an early ambush here having been written off by everyone in the pre-season, and even if they lose should keep it to 7 or less. 
 
3. North Queensland Cowboys v Canberra Raiders @ 1300 Smiles Stadium (Over 42.5 Points Match Total) 
 
* These teams were the 1st and 2nd ranked attacking sides from last season in the NRL. 
* The humid and hot conditions in Townsville will probably mean plenty of fatigue which will make it hard for defences to hold out against momentum swings. 
* Generally a fast track in Townsville that suits plenty of open football and ball movement, just hope the dew does not arrive!!
* Both these sides’ defence can be brittle close to the goal line especially the Raiders, who are missing a couple ok key players. 
* These teams have some of the most talented attacking players in the game, I am backing them both to score 20 + and cover the Over 42.5 for the Match.
 
4. Gold Coast Titans v Sydney Roosters (-2.5) @ CBUS Super Stadium
 
* Titans are missing an extremely underrated number 9 in Nathan Peats which will hinder them in a big way in terms of their direction around the ruck. 
* Roosters are close to full strength and desperate to atone for a shocking season in 2016, will be highly motivated.  
* Titans have to bed in two new Englishmen from the Super League yet to play a game in the NRL. It is going to take Sarginson and Greenwood time to adapt to the pace and power of the NRL.  
* Roosters have a significant advantage at centre and wing in terms of speed and strike power with the likes of Lupous against Zillman and Ferguson against Sarginson.  
* Fast track should suit open football and I think that will suit the Roosters. I think the Roosters can win this by a try or more and cover the -2.5 they are giving away
 
5. Manly Warringah Sea Eagles v Parramatta Eels @ Brookvale Oval (Under 41.5 Points Match Total) 
 
* Coaches usually like to play a more conservative brand of football in Round 1 revolving around ball control and defence. Both teams will play safety first. 
* Brookvale will be soggy and they traditionally leave the grass a bit longer there making it hard to play open football. 
* Parramatta are a team built on defence first, won’t take many risks, will try and grind out a win in an arm wrestle. 
* Manly outside of Trbojevic seem to lack strike power out wide, making it difficult for them to convert momentum into tries. 
* Whilst the Overs/Unders line has been adjusted in early games this week (Cro v Bris, Bull v Mel)  the Sydney rain is likely to hang around all weekend. I think this game can comfortably get Under 41.5 Points as both these teams are bitter rivals and could turn it into an arm wrestle!!