1st Test Preview - India V Australia @ Pune
Australia v India Ist Test Preview
Preview - India and Australia resume hostilities in the Test arena on Thursday with their 4-match series beginning in Pune. With the wicket in Pune looking very dry and with cracks already appearing on the surface, it will be a huge baptism of fire for the tourists against a side that has been nearly impregnable at home over the past few years. India have built up a hugely imposing record at home in Test Cricket in the past few years, winning 17 of their past 20 home Tests with 3 draws and no losses. Australia have lost their last three Test Series in India 4-0(4), 2-0(2) and 2-0 (4) after their famous breakthrough 2-1 victory way back in 2004-5. Back then, the Australian team contained some of the greats of the modern era including Matthew Hayden, Ricky Ponting, Adam Gilchrist, Shane Warne and Glenn McGrath. Australia is looking to improve a rotten recent record in Asia having lost their last 11 Test matches on the Sub-Continent.
Both sides are coming off recent success with Australia having demolished Pakistan 3-0 at home to gain a much needed confidence boost after series losses in Sri Lanka and at home to South Africa. India are at the back end of a remarkable 13 Test home summer, and have currently won 8 of those 9 Tests in three series victories including one draw. India dispatched New Zealand 3-0(3), England 4-0(5) before beating Bangladesh in a one off Test to pave the way for the much anticipated showdown.
Australia Scouting Report - Australia appear to have savagely dropped Usman Khawaja once again on the Sub Continent in a major batting shake up ahead of the First Test. After his last Test score of 184, Matt Renshaw was going to prove hard to top, however I am still surprised Australia appears to be leaning his way ahead of an experienced and in-form player in Khawaja. Renshaw scored just 10 and 11 against India A in the Tour game, and will most certainly face a far stiffer challenge than that of his debut home Summer. Shaun Marsh confirmed his place at Number 4 with an unbeaten hundred in the tour game, continuing on his good form in Asian conditions. Marsh has always been a polarising figure in the Australian team, however I think his recent form in Test Cricket is excellent and he deserves his place given his record in India and his ability against spin bowling.
Brother Mitchell Marsh appears to be the leading candidate for an all-rounders spot at Number 6 after a strong showing of 74 in the Tour game, coupled with getting 13 overs under his belt. Once again, this is a contentious selection as Mitchell Marsh has been given plenty of opportunities in Test cricket, with a modest batting record of averaging 23 from 19 Tests. Marsh's strongest point in selection may well have been his ability to reverse swing the old ball and give the Australian quicks some respite in challenging conditions.
With a dry and crusty wicket in Pune awaiting, Australia may yet opt to play a 3rd spinner alongside Nathan Lyon and Steven O'Keefe. All-rounder Glenn Maxwell and Ashton Agar have been thrown into the mix, with Steve Smith saying he has never quite seen a wicket like that of Pune and that the ball will take significant spin from Day 1. I would be gobsmacked if Australia decided not to play Josh Hazlewood. I think it would be a terrible move, even if the wicket was turning square. More likely, if Australia do decide to play a 3rd spinner, it will come at the expense of Mitchell Marsh. While Lyon and O'Keefe picked up 7 wickets between them in the Tour match, both went for 4 runs per over with Lyon conceding 5 runs per over. Australia will need their two spinners to be far more miserly if they are to be any hope in this series.
India Scouting Report - India will field an imposing batting line-up in the First Test with most of their top batsmen in decent form. India racked up three scores over 400 and two scores over 600 in their recent 5-match series against England, and will be looking to squeeze Australia into the dust with similar marathon efforts with the likes of Pujara, Kohli and Rehane. Virat Kohli is in monstrous form having scored 655 runs against England at an average of 109. Kohli is the best batsman in world cricket right now and has traditionally enjoyed coming up against the feisty Australians as he is a player who thrives on confrontation. India's batting is in such shape that they decided to drop a man in Karun Nair who scored a triple century in his last Test match against England. Ajinkya Rahane, who averages 47 from 33 Tests, returns in his place.
India is very likely to call upon a third spinner given the nature of the wicket in Pune. Jayant Yadav is an off spinner who has played 3 Test matches, picking up 9 scalps at an average of 29. Yadav also averages over 30 in First Class cricket with the bat so will add depth to India's batting line up alongside spinning all-rounders Ashwin and Jadeja. Ashwin is the Number 1 ranked bowler in the world at the moment, reaching 250 wickets in Test Match cricket quicker than anyone in the history of the game. He has a willing partner in Jadeja who has 96 of his 117 Test Match wickets in India at an average of 20.
Verdict - It is hard to see anything other than a victory for India here, however I think Australia will play better than most people expect. They have copped so many beatings in India and in Asia that there is very little pressure on this team to perform and they will enjoy going under the radar somewhat. The toss plays almost too big of a role on these sorts of dry and crusty surfaces, and if Australia is to win the toss they come right into the game. Lose the toss and concede a big first innings score and it could be curtains. A couple of predictions - I think Steven O'Keefe will out-bowl Nathan Lyon in terms of wickets and economy rate, and I think Steve Smith and Peter Handscomb will be Australia's two highest run scorers in this Test. Despite conditions that might not suit, I think Josh Hazelwood could well be Australia’s most effective bowler, and Mitchell Starc to not have the impact Australia is banking on.