BBL6 Game 30 Preview - Brisbane Heat v Melbourne Renegades @ The Gabba
Brisbane Heat (5-2) v Melbourne Renegades (3-4) @ The Gabba
Preview – It’s a crunch game for the Renegades as they travel to Brisbane to take on the table topping Brisbane Heat. The Renegades currently lie 6th with one game remaining, however, due to their positive net run rate, will be elevated into the Top 4 momentarily if they can knock off the Heat on their home deck. From there, the Renegades will have to sit and wait to see how the cards fan in the final two regular season games between the Hurricanes and Scorchers, and Sixers and Stars. The Renegades finally managed to get over the line in a close one as they held on to defeat the Adelaide Strikers on Monday night to keep their season alive. The Heat, meanwhile, are sitting pretty at the top of the table after a stunning upset win over the Melbourne Stars at the MCG on Tuesday. Despite missing Brendon McCullum, Chris Lynn and Samuel Badree, the Heat proved far too strong, running out 7-wicket victors. Whilst their place in the finals is assured, a win against the Renegades will guarantee a Top 2 spot and a home semi-final. Last season when the sides clashed at The Gabba, the Renegades ran out convincing winners by 7 wickets as Aaron Finch belted 65 in chasing down 180.
Squad Changes -The Heat get a massive inclusion with talismanic captain Brendon McCullum back from suspension at the top of the order. Left arm pace bowler Josh Lalor also comes into the squad for the first time this season after he has missed the opening seven games, having suffered a side strain in a practice match in November. Andrew Steketee is out with injury, while leg spinner Samuel Badree is nearing a return, however will target the Heat's semi-final next week for his reappearance. Peter Neville has been ruled out of this must win clash for the Renegades, after he was cleaned up by a stray bat in a freak accident against the Strikers. The extent of Neville's injuries are unclear, however it’s the second time in a week he has been forced to leave the field early under the concussion rule. The Renegades have called up Andrew Harriott as a replacement wicketkeeper. Harriott has played for the NSW Under 19s and ACT Under 23s, however it is a big ask for him to step into this pressure game.
Brisbane Heat Scouting Report - Earlier in the season, the Heat looked like a side that was Brendon McCullum and Chris Lynn or bust, however they have been getting some nice contributions from some of their lesser lights. Whilst it is harsh to call Joe Burns a lesser light, he has been reduced to a middle order player this year. However, he is doing an outstanding job for the Heat. Burns has only been dismissed twice, and has 144 runs at an average of 72 and strike rate of 128. Alex Ross looked well out of sorts in the first few games this season, however has bounced back in style in the Heat's last two games by being their leading scorer against the Scorchers and the Stars. Ross, alongside Burns, steered the side home against the Stars, and while he has had his troubles against the quicks, Ross now has 171 runs at an average of 34, although his strike rate of 118 is down on his usual production. Sam Heazlett showed glimpses of his talent coming in at Number 3 for the Heat against the Stars, and it will be interesting to see if he maintains that role with McCullum coming back into the side.
The Heat’s bowling attack continues to go from strength to strength as the season progresses. Mark Steketee and Mitchell Swepson are now the joint second top leading wicket takers in BBL6, and they are really coming along as surprise leaders of the Heat attack. Both has very similar and impressive stats, with 11 wickets each at an average of 18, while both are gong for less than 8 runs per over. I thought Ben Cutting would have to step up and lead this attack, however he has been disappointing with just 7 wickets at an average of 38, and going for nearly 10 runs per over.
Melbourne Renegades’ Scouting Report - The Renegades top order batting has really fired in the past two games since they dumped gimmick opener Sunil Narine. Aaron Finch has been a consistent force at the top, leading from the front with 283 runs at 40 and a high strike rate of 152. However, it was Marcus Harris that helped the Renegades across the line against the Strikers as he played somewhat of a lone hand, striking an amazing 83 from 53 balls. The diminutive left-hander really played out of his skin, hitting a number of lofted shots for boundaries. The Renegades really bombed their last 9-10 overs against the Strikers as they slumped from 1-100 in the 11th over, to lose 9/70 in the final 9 overs. The likes of Tom Cooper and Callum Ferguson have been in decent form of late so I expect them to do a better job of those latter overs in this massive game for the Renegades.
Everyone in Australian cricket would have been excited about the return of James Pattinson, however the cold hard truth is he has been a liability to date for the Renegades. While Pattinson has bowled at good pace and been unlucky at times, I feel that he has tried to play the aggression card too often and become too predictable with plenty of short balls. Pattinson has just 3 wickets at an average of 58, and is going for over 12 runs an over, which has created a real problem for his side. Thisara Perera bounced back from his disastrous last over against the Hurricanes by holding his nerve at the death, and claiming four crucial wickets. Brad Hogg has not been as brilliant as past BBL campaigns, however he is still bowling well and has decent results, with 7 wickets at an average of 30 and an economy rate of 7.6.
Verdict - I think this game will go right down to the wire, with both sides close to full strength on paper. I think if you look at who has more to play for, the Renegades are fighting for their final’s lives, so if the game is in the balance, maybe there is a slight edge towards them. However, with that brings pressure. The Heat will be able to play a bit looser and freer game, given they have already qualified for the finals. The Gabba is probably close to the best ground to bat on in BBL cricket, so I expect this game to be high scoring and the side that bats first to look for a score of 180+. The Heat’s bowling has been getting better and better, however they will be really tested here by the likes of Aaron Finch and Cameron White. The Renegades need their pace bowlers in Pattinson and Nathan Rimmington to provide some more impact for them. I don't think they can just rely on their spinners in Narine, Hogg and Cooper to keep bailing them out of trouble. The Heat probably deserve slight favouritism being at home, however expect this to be a closely contested game right to the death.
The Lurker - "I like the Heat in this game and I'm surprised that the Renegades are slight favourites. I like the High Bat/Bowler double for the Heat of Brendon McCullum into Chris Lynn while for the Renegades have a stab at the White/Narine double.