1st ODI Match Preview - Australia v Pakistan @ The Gabba
Mismatch On Paper Between 1st and 8th
Pakistan will start their 5-match ODI series with Australia as heavy underdogs when they open the series at The Gabba on Friday afternoon. Pakistan have a dreadful overall record in Australia and are fresh from the memory of a pretty uninspiring 3-0 defeat in the recent Test series. Pakistan, put simply, have a horrible record in Australia over the past decade, having lost their past 15 games combined in ODI and Test Cricket. The tourists have lost their last 8 ODIs in Australia, and currently ranked 8th best ODI team in the world are in danger of not automatically qualifying for the 2019 World Cup. If Pakistan drops out of the Top 8 ranked teams by 30 September this year, they will have to play a qualifying tournament in Bangladesh in 2018 just to make the World Cup. This means any victory achieved in this series against the Number 1 side could prove crucial.
Australia remains the Number 1 ranked ODI side after a recent 3-0 series clean sweep against New Zealand. Australia have been close to impregnable at home of late, having beaten India 4-1 in 2016 and winning the World Cup without losing a match a home in 2015. It's hard to make a case for Pakistani is this series to be honest. They looked a tired and uninspired outfit for much of the tour and despite making some changes here they don;;t look to have the quality particularly with the bat to worry Australia. I think Australia can sweep the series 5-0.
Finch and Bailey Make Way
It was a ruthless move by the Australian selectors to jettison both Aaron Finch and George Bailey in favour of Usman Khawaja and Chris Lynn. Australia have not played an ODI with neither Finch or Bailey since 2012, with the pair being regular members of the first choice 11 almost constantly for the last five seasons in aside that is ranked Number 1 in the World and won a World Cup no less.. Finch and Bailey have played a large role in taking Australian to that Number 1 ranking in the ODI format with Finch averaging 37 from 77 and Bailey 40 from 97 games. With both of them string in the high 80s, they had decent ODI records, however their respective form slipped away badly in 2016. Finch had just one century from his past 33 innings, while Bailey averaged just 13 from his past 7 games.
I don't think the door would be closed on either player, however the road seems further back for Bailey at 34 years of age, compared to Finch at 30. Both have responded to their axing with fantastic form in BBL6, as they have carried their respective team’s batting line ups as captains of the Renegades and Hurricanes. Finch has proved a bit in the past couple of week. He has run really well between the wickets and batted intelligently as well as brutally. He looks a stronger opening bat then Travis Head for mine, but has paid the price for his poor form.
Head Gets the Nod as Warner's Opening Partner
It's an interesting move by Steve Smith to open the batting with Travis Head. Head's selection in the team is fair enough, given he has shown promise in Australia's middle order registering scores of 52, 57 and 37 from Number 5 in the recently completed Chappell-Hadlee series against New Zealand. Head's ODI numbers do not necessarily demand an opening batting spot averaging just 29 from 15 games. However, he has passed 30 nine times from 15 innings, and batting from Number 5 sometimes you run out of times to make big scores and your average can suffer as a result. An average of around 30 from number 5 down is pretty good in ODI cricket. Maybe the hierarchy have seen enough to think that Head might average 10 points higher when given a real platform at the top of the order.
I still think Usman Khawaja would have to question the logic of the move given his imperious form in Australia over the past two summers at the top of the order. Khawaja has been in wonderful form this summer in the Test arena, and has an average 5 points higher than Head from the same amount of ODIs. Khawaja is more a natural top order player, in my opinion, with Head's best work coming against the spinners. I think now would have been the perfect opportunity to re-introduce Khawaja, however perhaps Head’s handy finger spinners and athletic fielding might have given him a slight edge. However with Australia’s middle order containing all-rounders like Glenn Maxwell, Mitchell Marsh and James Faulkner, I’m wondering whether Head will even get an opportunity to bowl.
Can Lynnsanity Transfer from BBL to ODI cricket?
It's clear the selectors have gone with the hot hand in Chris Lynn. Whilst his overall 50-over List A record of 39 games for an average of 31, with no centuries, certainly doesn't demand selection, Lynn’s explosive BBL6 form certainly warranted attention. In a high quality competition, Lynn has been by far and away the most explosive and most productive batsman in the BBL over the past two summers, and his ability to win a match off his own bat has got him this unbelievable opportunity. What will be interesting to see is how Lynn adapts from his 20-over mindset to a 50-over mindset batting at Number 4 for Australia. It's easy to say he should play the same way, however I am sure there will be a bit more going on inside his head should he come to the wicket with Australia at 2/20 with 45 overs to bat.
Lynn has a pretty simple but highly effective technique which has elevated him to the most destructive six hitter in the country. I don't think anyone can hit the ball further as Lynn as consistently. His 26 sixers in BBL cricket was more than most teams combined, and Lynn was a must pick for today’s game at his home ground, The Gabba. Lynn loves pace on the ball and the short straight boundaries of the Gabba. It is no surprise his best innings have come in Brisbane and Perth where there is more pace and carry in the wicket. If I were the Pakistanis, I would be hitting him with a couple of dart bowling finger spinners to start his innings. I hope Lynn does well as there is no doubt he is a box office talent and at just 26 years of age has the best year's of his batting career ahead of him.
Tourists Should Be Braced For Pace Assault
It's clear what Australia’s bowling strategy will be to the tourists this afternoon. In Mitchell Starc, Pat Cummins and Billy Stanlake, they’re going to hit Pakistan with raw pace and some genuine chin music. Early on in a long series, a bowling outfit can really inflict psychological scars on an opposition’s batsmen if you can ruffle them with the threat of physical harm as well as getting them out.
Pat Cummins might have been expensive in BBL6, however it's consistently the quickest I have seen him bowl for a few years, and he will be ready to unleash at the Gabba this afternoon. Billy Stanlake was the bolter of the squad, having bowled ferociously for the Adelaide Strikers in BBL6. The 22 year old beanpole from Queensland has raw potential, with his pace and bounce troubling some high quality batsmen in BBL6. Stanlake has showed the ability to bowl controlled lengths and swing the new ball, so he is far from a one trick pony. However, with just two First Class games behind him, Stanlake has had to deal with a number of setbacks and will be nervous heading into his debut today. However given his recent form I think he could make a real impact, particular against a suspect Pakistan middle order.