NFC SOUTH - Preview and Prediction

NFC SOUTH - This division has been dominated by Carolina in recent years with the Panthers winning the past 3 titles. While they are heavy favourites to do so again in 2016, the Falcons, Saints and Buccaneers will be looking to sneak up on them and improve. Despite Carolina's recent dominance, the South is usually a wide open division with no clear favourite. Even last season the Panthers were only favoured by some to win the division. Since the NFC South came into existence in 2002, for 11 straight seasons, there were no repeat winners of the division.  Despite last season's complete dominance, Carolina have lost a couple of key veterans on defence which may give other teams some hope.

CAROLINA PANTHERS

Last season (15-1, NFC South Champions, NFC Champions, Lost in the Super Bowl)

The Panthers had a record breaking 2015, but ultimately the bitter reality is they saved their worst for the biggest stage. Heading into the Super Bowl as heavy favourites, the Panthers offence and Cam Newton spluttered as they were shocked 24-10. The Panthers were a phenomenon last season as they marched their way to 15-1 after being only considered a wild card contender at best. Their offence, led by Cam Newton, was devastating and they built a supreme defence as they became the most balanced and efficient team in football. They smacked both Seattle and Arizona in the playoffs in devastating displays, however were left with the bitter taste of Super Bowl defeat as Denver defence cracked Carolina’s code. Cam Newton had an unbelievable year on his way to the NFL MVP award throwing nearly 4000 yards on his way to 35 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. Newton is the ultimate dual threat quarterback running for 6363 yards last season and at his devastating best was unstoppable at times last year. However he handled the Super Bowl loss poorly and it will be very interesting to see how he rebounds from his poor performance and melt down in the media. In Jonathan Stewart the Panthers have a reliable running back who ran for 942 yards in 2015 at an average of over 4 yards per carry. Carolina's wide receivers in Kelvin Benjamin, Greg Olsen and Ed Dickson are all over 6 foot four and capable of grabbing contested balls. Benjamin, when healthy, had over 1100 yards receiving in 2014 but spent much of last year injured. The Panthers are really strong on the front line on both sides of the ball. Their defensive line contains a number of big men with quick feet. Carolina stopped a remarkable 34% of run plays for 0 yards or less in 2015 emphasising their dominance here. The doubts for Carolina's team this year surface around the secondary with the release of star Josh Norman and the retirement of veteran Charles Tillman. It is hard to see the Carolina defence being as dominant this year without that veteran production and experience.

Verdict 12-4. NFC South Champions.

Carolina will not quite be as dominant this season, however should have enough to comfortably secure the South crown. After last year's bitter loss in the Super Bowl expect this team to play with a chip on their shoulder early in the campaign and race out of the blocks. Whilst I think Cam Newton is a superstar, it will be interesting to see how he rebounds character wise from his nightmare performance in the Super Bowl. This team remain one of the favourites for the Super Bowl this year and I think they have the ability and the motivation to make an impact on the playoffs.

NRL Team Comparison - Brisbane Broncos. Like the Brisbane Broncos in 2015 Carolina surged out of the pack last season to become favourites to take out the title. They did this through outstanding and balanced team play. However just like the Broncos they were defeated as favourites in the big dance.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

Last Season (7-9, 3rd in NFC South, No Playoffs)

The Saints have been stuck in mediocrity for the past 2 seasons faltering 7-9 on both occasions. The Saints have not made the playoffs since 2013 and despite Drew Brees remaining an elite NFL quarterback at 37 he is very much in the twilight of a great career. While the Saints offence put up some impressive numbers in 2015 their defence was deplorable at times and resembled the NFL's worst for much of the season. Brees was sensational at times throwing for over 4800 yards on his way to throwing 32 touchdowns to only 11 interceptions. Brees is one of the most entertaining players in the whole NFL with him peering over defences and his love of throwing the long bomb. The Saints have a work horse at running back in Mark Ingram, however CJ Spiller looks to be a shadow of the player he once was. In Brandon Cooks and Michael Thomas the Saints have some young if raw talent at the wide receiver position. Offensively Drew Brees should be confident with his front 7 on the offensive line - they look big and strong enough to give Brees plenty of crucial time in the pocket. New Orleans front seven defensively struggled mightily in 2015 allowing a season high 4.9 yards per rushing attempt. They were sliced open on the ground as teams poured their way through them as well. While the secondary has more talent and should compete this year, they can be inconsistent. They have the talent to be a top 10 unit and have the ability to create some turn overs for high powered Saints offence.

Verdict 10-6. 2nd in NFC South. Wild Card berth.

This is one of my shocks of the season. I am going with the 37 year old pocket rocket Drew Brees to carry the Saints behind a much improved defence back in to the playoffs. I expect the Saints to turn their home ground back into a fortress this season by winning at least 6 home games. Many people have the Saints last in their division this season; however I am banking on their defensive unit being much more aggressive and competent. In Drew Brees and Sean Payton they still have 2 of the best minds in football and after 2 straight years out of the playoffs will have hurt the pair.

NRL Team Comparison. It's the Penrith Panthers for mine. This team is potentially explosive on offence, however often leak points.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

Last Season (6-10, Last In NFC South)

The Buccaneers fired Head Coach Lovie Smith after a deflating 6-10 campaign saw them drop to last place in the NFC South. Despite seeing the team improve from 2-14 to 6-10 Smith was not spared the axe and controversially replaced by the team’s Offensive Coordinator in Dirk Koetter. Much of the Bucs’ hopes in 2016 rest with star young quarterback Jameis Winston who had a rollercoaster rookie season. Throwing for over 4000 yards with 22 touchdowns to 15 interceptions, Winston showed plenty of promise that he can be a genuine star in this league as he progresses. Winston has a cannon arm and combined with his game breaking ability he has the potential to turn the Bucs into an explosive offence. Tampa Bay will not be just a one-trick pony with potentially an outstanding running game if Doug Martin can stay healthy. Martin rushed for over 1400 yards in 2015 at 4.9 yards per carry. Charles Sims is an excellent back up for Martin and the combination of the two might be close to the best in the NFL. In Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson the Bucs have  twin towers at wide receiver. However outside of the two starting wide outs the Bucs are very skinny for options at slot receiver and tight end. The Bucs have all the makings of a Top 10 offence in the NFL, however will have to rely on a shaky offensive line to hold up if they are to produce the numbers they seem capable of. Tampa Bay will have to improve their defence dramatically if they are any hope to make the playoffs in 2016. They ranked 26th defensively for points allowed and in 2015 made average quarter backs looks like superstars at times. They lack overall talent on the front 7 and the secondary and will be relying on combinations to improve if this is to turn into a decent unit and balanced football team.

Verdict 6-10. 3rd in NFC South

I can't trust the Bucs. I know they are a trendy pick for a lot of people to be the young side that gets to the playoffs this season, however I can't see it. I think the coaching change is a bizarre one given Lovie Smith was an experienced Head Coach who took the team from 2-14 to 6-10. While Jameis Winston should continue to improve, I can't see Doug Martin having the same sort of year on the ground and the Tampa defence is way too suspect to carry them near the playoffs. 

NRL Team Comparison. Maybe the Wests Tigers. Bright, young side with potentially a great offence. However questions remain about their unknown head coach and the overall maturity of the team.

ATLANTA FALCONS SEASON PREVIEW

Last Season (8-8, 2nd in NFC South, No Playoffs)

The Falcons looked to be one of the feel-good stories of last season bolting out to 5-0 courtesy of Matt Ryan and Julio Jones lighting up teams. However the team fell away badly and ended up missing the playoffs and ended with an 8-8 record. The Falcons were woeful in their division last season finishing 1-5 within the NFC South and that win remarkably came against Carolina. Losing both games to struggling rivals Tampa Bay and New Orleans were crucial in stalling the Falcons season. Matt Ryan has been in the NFL for a fair while now and seemed to be on the edge of elite quarterback status for most of that. Ryan threw for over 4500 yards last season; however with 21 touchdowns and 16 interceptions his play became more and more inconsistent as the season went on. Devonta Freeman rushed for over 1000 yards in 2015 and with his 73 receptions he has become a very effective multi-purpose running back. The wide receiving group in Atlanta is dominated by one man, Julio Jones, who took over the NFL last season putting together a phenomenal individual season. Jones had 138 receptions and 1871 yards to go with 8 touchdowns as he became a one-man wrecking ball. The Falcons have a strong offensive line and they could well be a Top 5 offence in the NFL this season with Ryan, Jones and a reliable running back. However they enter this season with heavy question marks against their defensive front seven and their secondary. The Falcons coughed up big points at times last season and they lack stars and experience on the defensive side of the ball. If they want to have any ambitions of getting back to the playoffs the Falcons will need more consistency on the defensive side of the ball.

Verdict 5-11. 4th in NFC South.

I think the Falcons are in for a really poor season. They have close to the toughest fixture in the NFL this season and I see that being a big obstacle for them getting back to the playoffs. While I expect this team to be in the top half of teams offensively, their defence looks too leaky and will let them down more often than not. You have to remember this team finished the season on a 3-8 slide and I think that negative momentum might continue into 2016.

NRL Team Comparison. Hard to find an exact comparison here, however I will roll with the Sydney Roosters, a team that was expected to perform well suddenly fell flat and right down to the bottom.