AFC East - Preview and Prediction
AFC EAST PREVIEW -The AFC East has been less of a contest and more of a procession in recent years. New England have won 13 of the 15 division titles including a run of the last 7 straight on their way to 4 Super Bowl titles under the mercurial pair of Tom Brady and Bill Belichick. The only sides to briefly interrupt New England's dominance were the 2002 Jets and 2008 Dolphins, the year that Brady missed due to knee surgery. The AFC East has not carried multiple teams into the playoffs since 2009 and 2010 highlighting the lean run of the Bills, Jets and Dolphins over the past 5 years. With Brady missing the first 4 games this season due to suspension maybe the door is slightly ajar for their punch drunk rivals - however they all have much to prove and plenty of question marks heading into 2016.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Last Season (13-5, AFC East Champions, Lost in AFC Championship game)
The Patriots enter another season as one of the favourites to win the Super Bowl after falling just short of the Super Bowl stage in 2015. Last season they were stunned in the AFC Championship game at Denver 20-18 as Tom Brady fell victim to a Denver defence that rampaged straight through a beat up New England offensive line. The Patriots looked unstoppable at times last season racing out to 10-0 before falling to 12-4 with a couple of expensive late season losses costing them home field throughout the playoffs. Tom Brady again put up MVP numbers with 36 touchdowns to only 7 interceptions on his way to over 4700 yards of passing at a completion percentage of over 64%. The Patriots will have to deal with Brady missing the first 4 games due to an NFL imposed suspension from the "deflate gate" saga of 2014. Backup quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo will be thrown into the fire and expected to win a couple of games in Brady's absence. Garoppolo will be helped by throwing to one of the top few receiving corps in the league in Ron Gronkowski, Julien Edelman and Danny Amendola. Gronkowski has been in career best form of late leading the league in receptions for all tight ends in the past two seasons. The Patriots have added another big bodied tight end in Martellus Bennett to further enhance their offence. While New England's offensive line took a hammering in Denver in their AFC Championship game loss they should be far better there this year with some troops back on the paddock. New England's defence has rarely been elite under Belichick - however they only need to be above average to be right in contention again this year. Their overall defensive core remains young and they should be strong and well balanced on the defensive line and in the secondary. New England ranked 10th in points allowed in 2015 and if they can improve on that they will be clear favourites to reach another Super Bowl.
Verdict 11-5 (Win AFC East, will be in the AFC Championship game once more)
I still think this team will win this division with relative ease. After a slow start I see them powering home and leaving their rivals in their wake. I am holding back on my Super Bowl picks for another week, however I have no doubt the Patriots will be in the AFC Championship Game at least. Despite Brady missing 4 games they have a soft early fixture and should be able to win a couple of games without him. They get the Jets and Bills at home which are both winnable. I expect Brady to have 1 or 2 great seasons in him before age finally starts to take its toll.
NRL Team Comparison - Melbourne Storm - One of the great coaches of the game and one of the great players (think Bellamy and Smith being Belichick and Brady) have won multiple titles and never missed the playoffs. This has been the outstanding organisation of the NFL for the past 15 years just like Melbourne have been in the NRL. The Patriots might be hated outside their own walls for their perceived arrogance and their roles in the "spy gate" and "deflate gate" saga, similar to Melbourne's salary scandal.
BUFFALO BILLS
Last Season (8-8, 2nd in AFC East, Missed Playoffs)
The Bills under new head coach Rex Ryan made a lot of bluster and noise in 2015, however the talk failed to live up to the reality as the Bills missed the playoffs. Bills fans had high expectations heading into 2015, especially for a highly ranked defence under a known defensive guru in Rex Ryan. However they were left cold with an 8-8 season and a terribly underachieving defence. Bills fans have not had much to cheer of late finishing with a winning record just once in the past decade and remarkably having missed the playoffs every season since 1999. Rex Ryan in typical fashion arrived in Buffalo puffing out his chest claiming the Bills would make the playoffs last season. Ryan has now not produced a winning season since he led the Jets to 11-5 in 2010 on his way to the AFC Championship game and will need a winning season this year if he wants to keep his job in Buffalo. Tyrod Taylor was a pleasant surprise last season for Buffalo as a rookie quarterback of whom not a whole lot was expected. Taylor impressed in a better than expected offence managing 14 starts and the very respectable figures of 20 touchdowns to only 6 interceptions for just over 3000 yards and a completion percentage of a tick over 63%. Taylor again has Sammy Watkins to throw to as his main target which gives Buffalo a sizeable deep threat. Watkins had an explosive campaign where he was ranked 11th overall in receiving. The 2 running backs in Buffalo have the combined potential to be a top 10 option in the whole NFL and take this team to the playoffs. Leshawn McCoy is one of the most elusive runners in the game when at his best and in tandem with Williams, who had a dynamic end to the season, Buffalo have the potential to run the ball to great effect in 2016. The biggest surprise of 2015 was Buffalo's vaunted pass rush completely flopping despite containing names like Mario Williams, Marcell Dareus and Jerry Hughes. They finished 31st in the league managing just 21 sacks after leading the league in 2014. When you think of a Rex Ryan team you think of aggression and a stout defence. However they also managed just 19th rank in overall yards allowed per play. It is clear Buffalo must get their defence in order if they are any hope of making this division a contest.
Verdict 9-7 (2nd in AFC East). Just Miss the the Wild Card Spot and Playoffs
You would think this team should be better this season, however I have trouble trusting Rex Ryan these days. I think they will go 1 game better than last season but miss out on the playoffs via a tie breaker. While I think Tyrod Taylor is a good young player I think he might have a difficult 2nd season in Buffalo as teams get a read on how he plays. The defence is sure to improve somewhat on last seasons woeful performance. Buffalo also have the gorilla hanging over their head of not having qualified for the playoffs since 1999 and that is a lot of pressure to play with. I think this team are competitive in every game but still fall just short of where they want to go.
NFL Team Comparison - Parramatta. A proud club with a passionate fan base, with a fair bit of hype surrounding the team. However they just can’t seem to get it together of late and are living a bit off past glories.
MIAMI DOLPHINS
Last Season 6-10 (Last Place in AFC East)
The 2015 season for Miami has to go down as a shocker given the pre-season hype about competing for the AFC East division title. The Dolphins had a turbulent season firing their head coach Joe Philbin after a 1-3 start. After a brief resurgence the team slumped to 6-10 and last place in the division. The Dolphins have hired former Bears Offensive Coordinator Adam Gase to be their new Head Coach in 2016. Gase had some success at Denver working with the great Payton Manning. However what caused the Dolphins to hire him was undoubtably the improvement in Jay Cutler as Bears quarterback in 2015. Gase helped Cutler put together his most consistent season in a while and will be expected to do the same with the similarly polarising figure of Ryan Tanehill at quarterback. Tanehill has all the attributes to become an elite quarterback in the NFL with his size, power, speed and arm strength. However he has so far yet to deliver and his leadership qualities have been brought into question by several in the media. After making steady progress in Miami in his first few years, Tanehill finished with his worst QBR of his career in the 2015 season. Tanehill has a career 85/5 touchdown/interception ratio and a career completion percentage over 61%. However the numbers don't tell the full story. Tanehill's form has fluctuated wildly during games and he has a poor record in third down completions and often saves his worst football for the most important plays. To go with his prickly character Tanehill has much to prove to his team mates and the Miami faithful heading into this season. There are huge question marks about Miami's running game with the Dolphins having 3 players with just 484 combined snaps between them in the NFL heading into 2016. The Dolphins have a very young and unproven receiving core that could surprise this season but they have lost some experience. Ndamukong Suh was a huge off season recruit last season for the Dolphins and while he put up respectable numbers could not transform a poor Dolphins defence. Suh is the only player of high quality in the front 7 and while the secondary looks better than last season it may be a mid-table group at best. There is far less hype about Miami this season and maybe that could play into this team's hands as they get about their business without the pressure from the outside.
Verdict 6-10. (3rd In AFC East)
Sorry Dolphins fans, I'm no fan of Tanehill and this side has so many question marks over it overall. There has been talk that Tanehill has had a great pre-season - however when the heat is on I still see him being inconsistent. They are in a division where there are no easy wins and I expect them to struggle to win their fair share of games in this division. Miami have found it difficult to turn their home ground, Hard Rock Stadium, into a fortress and I see that problem again in 2016.
NRL Team Comparison - Gold Coast Titans. Glitter strip on the Gold Coast, think South Beach Miami. Might be a glamour place for players to play however have not been relevant in terms of a Super Bowl or even playoff contender for the best part of a decade.
NY JETS
Last season 10-6 (2nd in AFC East, Unlucky to miss Wild card Spot)
The NY Jets will enter 2016 after a highly impressive 10-6 which saw them narrowly miss the playoffs after losing to Buffalo in the final week of the season. The Jets went from 5-5 mediocrity in mid season on a 5 match winning run only to save their worst performance for last against their division rivals. The loss will sting for a while for Jets fans given it came at the hands of former head coach Rex Ryan, who went 2-0 against his former team in 2015. Despite overachieving in 2015 the Jets still have not made the playoffs since 2010 when they reached their second of 2 straight AFC titles games. The Jets face a murky quarterback situation heading into 2016 with the surprise packet of last season Ryan Fitzpatrick's contract hold out putting him at risk of losing his job to Geno Smith who has been impressive in the pre season. Fitzpatrick an NFL veteran, journeyman broke the Jets season single season touchdown record yard year throwing 31 touchdowns to 15 interceptions. Fitzpatrick exceeded all expectations however he imploded throwing 4 interceptions in their costly defeat to Buffalo in the final round. Matt Forte has been recruited as running back to replace Chris Ivory to give the Jets a steady but unspectacular option in the backfield. Led by Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker the Jets have two highly productive and different types of wide receivers. Each racked up double digit touchdowns and they were always able to grab contested balls. The Jets do offensive line does look a little shaky and that could spell trouble with a veteran like Fitzpatrick unlikely to be able to take too many hits without it affecting his play. The Jets run defence was excellent last season and they retain a strong and balanced seven. Any secondary led by the great Darrell Revis should not be under estimated however there appears little depth or star power behind the ageing Revis and it remains a question mark how effective the Jets can be in this area.
Verdict - 5-11 (last in AFC East)
Taking a bit of a bold stab here that the Jets might flop. I see Fitzpatrick hitting the wall this year and the Jets being in a very dicey quarterback situation. Fitzpatrick exceeded all expectations last season however there is a reason he has been a journeyman and I see that coming to pass this year. The Jets run game does not inspire any confidence that they can take the pressure of him either.
NRL Team Comparison - Hard to nail one, but going with the Dragons. Often far from a spectacular team to watch and like to grind out games rather then put up big numbers. Enjoyed good times around 2009 and 2010, but have struggled ever since.