AFC WEST - Season Preview and Prediction

AFC West Preview - This might be the deepest division in the whole of football heading into the new NFL season. It contains last season's Super Bowl Champions and every other team has genuine playoff aspirations. I expect this division to be ultra tight and tough, with two teams making the playoffs and the 3rd placed team at least not to be far away. Most experts can't agree on which team will win this division with every team given a chance which is very rare in the NFL. 

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Last season (12-6, 2nd in AFC West Division, Exited 2nd Round of Playoffs)

Last season the Chiefs under Andy Reid stunned the football world by going from 1-5 to winning 11 straight games before a 2nd round playoff exit. The feat was all the more impressive given the side lost star running back Jamal Charles early in their campaign to a season ending injury. The Chiefs remarkable 11 game run came off the back of a suffocating defence that ranked in the Top 5 in the NFL. The 30-0 beat down of the Texans in Houston in the first round of the playoffs was close to the most outstanding team defensive performance of the year. Alex Smith remains one of the most polarising quarterbacks in the NFL. However no one can doubt he is a very dependable quarterback. Smith has made a career out of not making mistakes. He doesn't throw interceptions and knows how to manage a game. Under Andy Reid's system Smith does not have to throw the deep ball, and the Chiefs put up respectable numbers as far as offensive production goes last season. With Jamal Charles back, the Chiefs will expect greater production from their run game. However after 2 knee reconstructions in 5 years doubts remain about how Charles will come back. 

Verdict - 10-6. AFC West Champions. Exit in Second Round of Playoffs

Kansas City have a very good defence and I expect them to be good again this year. They will be functional again on the offensive side and incredibly hard to beat in the zoo which is Arrowhead Stadium. In the playoffs I think the Chiefs might be capable of winning a game or two given they have an elite defence and an experienced team. Can't see them as a genuine Super Bowl contender given they have a few limits on offence. 

NRL Team Comparison - Kansas City are a bit like the Broncos. Gritty and organised, very hard to beat, maybe just lacking a killer punch with the ball. 

OAKLAND RAIDERS

Last Season (7-9, 3rd in AFC West Division) 

The Oakland Raiders have been the worst performing Team in the NFL since they last went to a Super Bowl in 2002. Since then Oakland has managed 13 losing seasons out of the last 14, and registered just one 8-8 season under Hue Jackson in 2011. Raider Nation has seen a bleak period like no other, with several draft busts and big money miscues making Oakland a laughing stock for too long. However after going 7-9 last season under Jack Del Rio, this side is loaded with young talent and are ready to finally make their mark. Derek Carr enters his third season as Oakland's quarterback and for much of last season he played close to an elite level. However Carr's season did dip a little as the season went on and he was poor in a few of the Raiders losses. However what he does have is great leadership qualities and intangibles. Carr developed an explosive combination with rookie wide out Amari Cooper which I expect to go to an even higher level this year. Michael Crabtree proved a great foil for Carr, while the Raiders running game was pretty decent overall led by Demarco Murray. The Raiders offensive line was surprisingly good throughout much of last season and they have some stability in this area. Oakland has potentially the most explosive defensive player in the game behind JJ Watt in Khalil Mack. Mack plays with genuine menace and is a huge threat to get to the opponent's quarterback. The problem for Oakland last season was largely on the defensive side with the team ranked 22nd overall in defence. General Manager Reggie McKenzie has tried to address Oakland's problems in the secondary which caused Oakland to have a few late meltdowns which resulted in high scoring losses. The Raiders need to improve a huge amount in this area if they consider themselves true contenders. 

Verdict - 10-6. Wild Card berth. Exit 1st Round of Playoffs

I think the Raiders offence behind Derek Carr can propel them to a first playoff berth in 15 years and a wild card berth. I just think the Raiders have the most talent at QB and on offence in the division and that can get them over the line in some of the fierce divisional match ups. This side does have a history of losing and do lack experience which could yet factor against them. While I don't think the defence will be great, I expect them to improve on giving up nearly 25 points per game last season. If the Raiders make the playoffs I don't see them as a real contender. However a playoff berth is all Raider Nation is craving right now after over a decade in the wilderness. 

NRL Team Comparison - I compare Oakland to the Warriors. Loaded with talent but with a recent history of failure and the propensity to implode. 

DENVER BRONCOS

Last season 14-5 (AFC West Champions, AFC Champions, Super Bowl Champions) 

The AFC West is wide open this year for probably the first time since 2012 when the Broncos recruited hall of fame quarterback in waiting Peyton Manning. The Broncos have won the past 5 AFC West Division crowns, the last 4 with Manning under centre. This period of dominance culminated in winning Super Bowl 50 last February in a brutal 24-10 win over the Carolina Panthers behind a devastating defensive display. Manning played out his final year a shadow of the force he was, however his experience and presence allowed the offence to scratch out enough points for Denver's rough riders on defence to take them to the championship. The Broncos general manager John Elway refused to yield to Brock Osweiler's contract demands and he landed at the Texans, leaving the Broncos in perhaps the worst quarterback position in the whole NFL which is staggering really. The much maligned Mark Sanchez is favourite to win the starting job in Denver and that should not fill Broncos fan with much confidence. A career 56% passer with 86 touchdown to 84 interceptions to me is hardly worthy of opening the season as the reigning champions answer in the most important position in the NFL.   The other options are young upstart Trevor Sieiman and rookie Paxton Lynch. Clearly the Broncos under Gary Kubiak will have to rely much more on the running game, which was only average last season. The Broncos still do have a couple of weapons wide out should they mount some respectable play in the quarterback position. The Broncos do have a suffocating defence led by line backer Von Miller, who was rewarded for this all star season with a bumper new contract. While the Broncos led the league in a number of defensive categories last season they have lost some vital depth on their roster. 

Verdict - 8-8. 3rd in AFC West. No Playoffs.

This might be a bold prediction, however I think the Broncos are going to go 8-8 and miss the playoffs as defending champions. I still think their defence will be Top 5 in the NFL, however their quarterback debacle is going to be hard to overcome. They have a tough early fixture and this team also has to deal with becoming the hunted as defending champions. 

NRL Team Comparison- The Roosters. This team has reached the mountain and are on the slippery slope down. 

 SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

Last season (4-12, Last in AFC West) 

Finally we come to San Diego still led by the veteran firebrand at quarterback in Phillip Rivers. The Chargers had a nightmare campaign last season finishing 4-12. The Chargers lost a remarkable 10 games by 7 points or less as the team unravelled in several close finishes. Keenan Allen was on track to be a top 5 receiver in the league before his season was ended by injury in week 8 and he will be expected to lead a San Diego revival. The Chargers have added the explosive Travis Benjamin to give Rivers a deep ball threat. The Chargers had a terrible year running the ball averaging a remarkably poor 1.39 yards before contact with the defence. The San Diego offensive line was a mess for much of last season and with quarterback Rivers at 34 years old he won't want to take some of the huge hits he took last season. 

Verdict - 6-10. Last in AFC West. 

I just can't see San Diego getting it together. I think Phillip Rivers whilst still a ravenous competitor has his best years behind him. I can see them clicking on offence if given protection, however the offensive line looks shaky at best. Too many unknowns for the running game and the defence looks only average at best for me. Sorry Chargers fans, but I think you will remain rooted to the bottom of the division. 

NRL Team Comparison - The Dragons. Beaten up and struggling. Competitive but lacking the weapons to win the close game.