NRL - Newcastle Knights 2018 Season Preview and Prediction
Newcastle Knights 2018 Season preview
Last season - 16th, five wins, 19 losses, 428 points scored, 648 points conceded
Last five seasons - Seventh (made prelim final), 12th, 16th, 16th, 16th
2017 review - Despite finishing with the wooden spoon for a third straight season, the Knights made significant steps forward in 2017.They lost 11 games by 12 points or less, which showed a huge improvement in competitiveness and resilience, across the 80 minutes, from a young side.The Knights, despite only winning five games, improved their overall differential by 275 points in 2017, and they finally appear ready to make a leap forward in 2018 with a host of big signings.
2018 Gains - Herman Ese’ese (Broncos – 2020), Slade Griffin (Storm – 2019), Aidan Guerra (Roosters – 2020), Chris Heighington (Sharks – 2018), Jacob Lillyman (Warriors – 2018), Tautau Moga (Broncos – 2020), Mitchell Pearce (Roosters – 2021), Kalyn Ponga (Cowboys – 2021), Connor Watson (Roosters – 2020).
2018 Losses - Brendan Elliot (Titans), Jaelen Feeney (Townsville Blackhawks), Dane Gagai (Rabbitohs), Jacob Gagan (Rabbitohs), Rory Kostjasyn (retired), Jesse Martin (Sea Eagles), Sam Mataora (retired), Chanel Matautia (retired), Peter Matautia (Leigh), Jarrod Mullen (retired), Mickey Paea (Hull FC), Josh Starling (Oberon), Jack Stockwell (Titans), Anthony Tupou (retired), Joe Wardle (Castleford), Tyler Randell (Wakefield Trinity), Pauli Pauli (Wakefield Trinity), David Bhana, Will Pearsall (released), Trent Hodkinson (Sharks)
What to make of their gains and losses - The Knights have been the big winners over the summer, completely reshaping their roster with a ton of Salary Cap space available to them. Starting with Mitchell Pearce – he plays the most important position on the field, is a premiership winner, has played close to 250 first grade games and over 20 Origins.
The Knights needed a marquee man to give the passionate Newcastle community hope again and, with some good signings around him, in Pearce they have that. Kayln Ponga has the potential to be a superstar at fullback. He is freakish talent and seems to have the build to withstand the hits.
The Knights have also bought a really solid centre in Tautau Moga and the Roosters trio of Kenny-Dowall, Watson and Guerra are also used to playing in a winning side. Even Chris Heighington is from a winning culture, and he will add something off the bench.Their only real loss of note is Dane Gagai, who has been their best backline player over the past couple of years, however decided to make the move to the Rabbitohs in the off-season.
Head Coach – Nathan Brown 0Nathan Brown has taken his medicine the past couple of seasons, building a side from virtually the ground up. I applaud him for taking the long approach, with decisions he made over the past couple of years to get rid of some experienced players, and give the kids an opportunity to learn on the run.It would have been easier for him to achieve results in his first two seasons by signing some veterans and plugging some holes. However, he made the tough calls and cleaned out the place.This resulted in some heavy beatings early, however they had significant room to move in their salary cap and I think Brown has bought very well.
Most important player – Mitchell Pearce
No surprise here, this year the Knights will go as far as Mitchell Pearce will take them. Trent Hodkinson was running on old legs, and young halves like Brock Lamb and Jack Cogger did some good things, but to have a general like Pearce running the team is a huge boost. Say what you like about Pearce’s rep career, but he is in the top few halfbacks in the NRL in terms of production, durability and experience, and his on-field leadership will really accelerate a side that has lost plenty of close games over the past couple of seasons. Pearce will also thrive without the pressure of the Sydney fishbowl and the weight of expectation at the Roosters, which was basically every season, premiership or bust.
2018 Likely Side - 1. Kalyn Ponga 2. Nathan Ross 3. Sione Mata’utia 4. Tautau Moga 5. Shaun Kenny-Dowall 6. Connor Watson 7. Mitchell Pearce 8. Daniel Saifiti 9. Slade Griffin 10. Jacob Lillian 11. Aidan Guerra 12. Jamie Buhrer 13. Mitchell Barnett Bench - 14. Danny Levi 15. Jacob Saifiti 16. Chris Heighington 17. Herman Ese’ese
2018 verdict – 9th
I can’t see the Knights claiming a fourth straight wooden spoon. I originally had them in my top eight however I have just bumped the Eels ahead of them in a late change to my order. just think their lack of quality power in the forwards might see them fall agonisingly short. They will be one of the feel good stories of 2018, winning more than half their home games and playing some attractive and expansive football.The combination between Mitchell Pearce, Kalyn Ponga and Connor Watson is going to be really exciting to watch and will pose a big threat to sides.
Probably my main area of concern is the front row, where they could struggle to get on top of experienced sides in the middle of the field. Their backline looks decent enough, however the loss of Dane Gagai is a blow.If they click early, and the crowds start selling the place out, they are capable of making the top eight – this is a talented team in key positions with attacking flair.
I have elevated the Eels into 8th spot just ahead of Newcastle due to their experience I expect the Knights to win 11-12 games and just miss out on the finals this year, however they are morals next year – they are a side on the way up.