NRL Round 3 - My Best Bets (20 Unit Bank)

RUNNING TALLY = - 19 Units

Melbourne Storm v North Queensland Cowboys @ AAMI Park

BET = 7 Units Melbourne Storm to Win @ $1.65
 
I just can't see the Storm losing two games in a row at home. They looked extremely hurt and gutted to lose Billy Slater's 300th game for the Club in such a big milestone match, so I'm expecting a big reaction this week with Craig Bellamy still ringing in their ears. The Storm have a good recent record against the Cowboys, having demolished them in the Grand Final last year, as well as having beaten them twice during the regular season. 
 
Parramatta Eels v Cronulla Sharks @ ANZ Stadium

BET = 5 UNITS (SWEET SPOT) Parramatta +8.5 and Cronulla +11.5 @ $1.75
 
A side is always dangerous bouncing back from a 50-point loss, so I'm expecting the Eels to come out with plenty of intensity this week.  However, I think there has been much more to like about Cronulla’s performances than Parramatta’s so far this season, so I’m not expecting them to bounce back with a win. The best bet here has to be the sweet spot. With both sides 0-2, I'm expecting them to be equally as desperate, so a really tight game will ensue. On a slippery surface at ANZ Stadium, I can’t see the margin for either side getting too far outside of a try. 
 
4 UNIT BET = 2 Leg Multi @ $2.85

Broncos v  Tigers @ Campbelltown Stadium (Total Match Points Under 37.5 Points @ $1.90)
Bulldogs v  Panthers @ ANZ Stadium (Total Match Points Under 40.5 @ $1.50) 
 
My formula is pretty simple here. There are going to be three straight days of heavy rain in Sydney, so it’s best to dive in early on the under bets on both games on Friday night. The Tigers have been involved in two 10-8 games so far, and that was against attacking powerhouses in the Roosters and Storm. Both sides I'm expecting to be very strong defensively, whilst you would have to think the Bulldogs are going to turn up with their tackling boots on as well after conceding 66 points on the road in their opening two games. ANZ is a notoriously difficult surface to play much free flowing football on after the rain, so I’m expecting this to be a really low scoring affair. 
 
4 UNIT BET = 2 Leg Multi @ $3.06

Sharks v Eels @ ANZ Stadium (Sweet Spot Eels +8.5 and Sharks +11.5 @ $1.75) 
Titans v Dragons (Sweet Spot Titans +15.5 and Dragons +4.5 @ $1.75)
 
I have already spoken about how I think the Eels and Sharks will play out a desperately close game on a wet surface at ANZ Stadium. The second leg of this Multi I see the Dragons winning a fairly close game on the Gold Coast. The Titans rarely get blown away, and the Dragons often win close games, so I’m thinking the Sweet Spot range should be a fairly safe bet here.