Test Cricket - South Africa v Australia - My 20 Unit Bank (Best Bets)

Australia v South Africa Four Test Series - Best Bets Using a 20 Unit Bank

(Using TAB odds at time of publication)  
 
SERIES RESULT
 
1 Unit Draw @ $5
 
With both sides relatively shorter quoted at Under $2.50, clearly the value bet here is a drawn series. The last six series has been decided by one Test or less, and now they have added a fourth Test I'm pretty confident we might get four results, based on the quality of the fast bowling attack, and the aggressive nature both teams play their cricket. 
 
SERIES CORRRECT SCORE
 
1.5 Unit Draw 2-2 @ $6
1.5 Unit Take South Africa @ 2-1 $6.50
1 Unit on Australia to Win 2-1 @ $6
 
Bottom line is I think this is going to be a really close and fiercely contested Series. The last six Series between these two teams have been decided by one Test or less, and both sides match up similarly on paper in terms of their strengths and weaknesses. I just think if there is a washout, or a dull draw, I give the hosts the edge to win the Series. Given they are a little bit fresher in terms of the amount of cricket they have played, and the fact they have the added motivation of having lost three of their past four home Series against Australia, might see them edge this series. The way I have staked my bets, even if Australia win 2-1, we can make a small profit by backing all three outcomes. 
 
TOP SOUTH AFRICAN SERIES RUN SCORER
 
2.5 Units on AB De Villiers @ $3.50
1.5 Unit Hashim Amla @ $3.50
 
I think AB De Villiers comes into this series fresher than most of the other world class batmen in the Series. He has not played much Test Cricket over the last eighteen months, and this is the perfect opportunity to show the world why he is considered such a special player. He has seen players like Smith, Kohli and Root surpass him over the past couple of seasons, and I think this is the Summer where he puts his name back up in lights. If we miss on De Villiers, have a saver bet on Amla at the same price. The fact you can back both, and make a profit, seems a good bet to me, as I can't see any other South African player being within striking distance of these two at the end of a Four Test Series. 
 
TOP AUSTRALIAN SERIES RUN SCORER
 
2.5 Units on Steve Smith @ $2.25
2 Units on Usman Khawaja @ $5
 
I think the value here is clearly Australia's Number 3 in Usman Khawaja. Both David Warner and Steve Smith have played a lot of cricket of late, and Khawaja comes into this series fresher than both, and coming off a huge century at the SCG in his most recent Test. I think Khawaja potentially has the best technique in the country on fast and bouncy wickets, in terms of batting time and dealing with the moving ball. I expect this to be a series where he really asserts himself as a world class player, at least in these conditions. If Khawaja doesn't fire, we can still  bet the same amount on Steve Smith and collect and, given his imperious run in Test Cricket the past couple of years, you would be a fool to not have him on your side. Perhaps the only danger to Khawaja and Smith is Warner. However I'm going to oppose him, given the amount of cricket he has played of late, he looks really jaded to me. 
 
TOP SOUTH AFRICAN LEADING WICKET TAKER
 
1.5 Units on Kagiso Rabada @ $3.25
1.5 Units on Morne Morkel @ $4
 
I think the home side won't be bowling a hell of a lot of spin this summer, so I found it best to even stake between two of their fast bowlers in Rabada and Morkel. Given I predict the wickets are going to be slower and later than expected, I'm not expecting Philander to have the same impact given his lack of pace, so I think it’s a straight shootout between Rabada and Morkel to be the host’s leading wicket takers. Morkel will be playing with the weight of the world off his shoulders, knowing he is retiring at the end of the summer, so I wouldn't be at all surprised if he went out with a bang. Rabada has the genuine pace to worry Australia, and should pick up plenty of wickets at the death. 
 
TOP AUSTRALIAN LEADING WICKET TAKER
 
2 Units Mitchell Starc @ $2.50
1.5 Units Nathan Lyon @ $5
 
I did like Pat Cummins having a big series, however I couldn't justify betting on him at the relative skinny odds of $3.75. We have seen in the past Mitchell Johnson swing the ball in South Africa and have a huge impact, and if Starc can do that he could have a massive Series. The thing about Starc is sometimes he doesn't even bowl that well, but he picks up wickets. Starc is a master at cleaning up the tail, so expect him to get plenty of cheaper wickets. I also want Nathan Lyon on my side, as the Aussie quicks have had a habit of sharing the wickets around over the summer, given their quality. That often means Nathan Lyon is relied upon to toil from one end for 25-30 overs a day and, on wickets I expect to be slower than predicted, he could have another huge impact on this Series and is the value price.