NRL Finals Week 2 Preview and Prediction - Parramatta Eels v North Queensland Cowboys @ ANZ Stadium

Parramatta Eels v North Queensland Cowboys @ ANZ Stadium
 
Preview - The Eels will be looking to make their first Preliminary Final since 2009 as they shoot for the stars against the battle-weary Cowboys on Saturday night at ANZ Stadium.  The Eels would have lost no admirers last week, however would have come away desperately disappointed with their 18-16 loss to the Storm in Melbourne last week. The Eels led the game 10-4 at halftime and had rattled the Storm with some physical defence and quality football. However, the Storm dominated the first 20 minutes of the 2nd half, before the Eels rallied late to force a frenetic finish. The Cowboys, once again, defied the critics with an amazing 15-14, extra time, come-from-behind victory against the heavily favoured Sharks at Allianz Stadium last Sunday. The Cowboys have won a number of low scoring and gritty games this year, and it was no different again here, as they twice came from 8 points down to seal their passage through to the second week of the finals.
 
History - The Eels and the Cowboys met twice this season with vastly contrasting results. Up in Townsville in Round 5 the Eels beat the Cowboys convincingly 26-6 in a game where Johnathan Thurston did not play. However, the Cowboys got their revenge in the game up in Darwin, smashing the Eels 32-6, in a game Thurston helped control from start to finish. Whilst the last 4 meetings have been split at 2 wins each, the Cowboys have been dominant over the past 5 years winning 8 from the last 11. These 2 sides last met in the finals back in the 2005 Preliminary final where the Cowboys stunned the heavily fancied Eels 29-0.
 
Parramatta Eels’ Scouting Report - The Eels have named an unchanged 17 from the team that went down narrowly to the Storm. That means that  Bevan French is still not ready to return from a hamstring injury. After a bruising affair in Melbourne, the Eels do have a couple of players under an injury cloud including Cameron King (arm) and Tepai Moeroa (concussion) who must both prove their fitness.
 
North Queensland Cowboys’ Scouting Report - Like the Eels, the Cowboys have the luxury of calling upon the same side that upset the Sharks last Sunday. In what could prove an unlikely boost, Representative centre Justin O’Neill (elbow) is a chance to return after being named in reserves. Jason Taumalolo confirmed his place as the best forward in the game last week with another barnstorming display against the Sharks. 
 
Verdict - Parramatta by 4-12 in a low scoring game

I don't expect this to be a cakewalk for the Eels against a side that has hung tough all year. However, that extra-time result would have taken a lot of juice out of the Cowboys, and a 6-day turnaround back in Sydney is tough to back up for and be at their best. The Eels, unlike some other Sydney teams, are likely to have a 40,000 strong fan base behind them for this game, and I see the crowd playing a role in getting some of the 50-50 calls go their way. I expect the Cowboys to be gritty, and not make many mistakes, and try to pinch this game in the last 20 minutes. However, I think the Eels are a better side and in better nick at the moment, and they will win this game by between 6-14 points to advance them to an  explosive Preliminary Final against the Roosters next week.