My 5 Best Bets for NRL Round 21

Penrith Panthers v Canterbury Bulldogs @ Pepper Stadium
 
BET = Penrith Panthers -6.5
 
1.      The Panthers have already beaten the Bulldogs 38-0 this season away from home.

2.      The Bulldogs have won just 7 of their last 22 matches, with their poor form stretching for nearly over a season now. 

3.      The Panthers have won 5 from their past 6 matches and are building momentum nicely into the playoffs.

4.      The Dogs finals’ hopes are finished and I’m expecting a long end to the year for them.

5.      Despite missing Matt Moylan, I see Penrith winning this game comfortably. 

Parramatta Eels v Brisbane Broncos @ ANZ Stadium
 
BET = Parramatta +6.5
 
1.      The Broncos have only one 1 away game this year by more than a try. 

2.      The Eels have won 6 of their past 8 games and will be backed by a strong home crowd. 

3.      The Eels have only lost 1 of their past 8 games by more than 6 points. 

4.      ANZ night games usually means a slippery surface, which should dictate this game is low scoring and tense.

5.      I’m not convinced the Eels can win, however I expect them to give the Broncos a real game here. 

 
Newcastle Knights v St George Illawarra Dragons @ McDonald Jones Stadium
 
BET = Over 44.5 Total Match Points
 
1.      These 2 teams have already combined for 60 total match points in a game played little over a month ago at Kogarah. 

2.      The Dragons have rediscovered their attacking mojo after racking up 52 points against the Sea Eagles last week.

3.      Afternoon football in Newcastle usually means a fast track and, with good weather due, I'm expecting an open and attacking game. 

4.      The Knights’ defence has still been a massive problem this year, conceding over 26 points in 5 of their last 7 games. 

5.      I think both sides might score 20 here, with the Dragons capable of racking up closer to 40, to comfortably finish over 44 total match points. 

 
South Sydney Rabbitohs v Canberra Raiders @ ANZ Stadium
 
BET = Over 43.5 Total match points
 
1.      The last time these 2 sides met at a similar stage of the season at ANZ Stadium they combined for 58 points, with the Raiders thumping the Rabbitohs 54-4.

2.      With both teams’ finals hopes looking very slim, I'm not expecting defence to be a priority here, and the football played to be fairly loose. 

3.      The Rabbitohs have conceded over 20 points in 5 of their last 7 fixtures. 

4.      The Raiders have also conceded 20 points or more in 5 of their last 7 games. 

5.      I’m just expecting this game to be fairly open, with both sides capable of scoring 20 points or more. 

 
Gold Coast Titans v Wests Tigers @ CBUS Super Stadium
 
BET = Wests Tigers +9.5
 
1.      The Tigers have been extremely competitive of late, pushing both the Sea Eagles and Eels to the final 10 minutes.

2.      Earlier this season when the sides clashed, the Tigers were without Tedesco and had a few close calls go against them in a 12-point loss at Campbelltown. 

3.      The Titans’ finals hopes are all but over after their loss to the Panthers last week, so I'm not convinced they are going to be more desperate than the Tigers.

4.      Ivan Cleary slowly appears to be making this Tigers’ side more competitive across the 80 minutes, even if they are not winning games. 

5.      I expect the Titans to win this game, however I think the Tigers are playing a bit better than their results suggest at the moment and can keep this game close.