My 5 Best Bets for NRL Round 20 (Line and Under/Over Total Match Points)
Sydney Roosters v Newcastle Knights @ Allianz Stadium
BET = Sydney Roosters - 15.5
1. The Roosters have already beaten the Knights by 18 points this season and that was in Newcastle.
2. The Roosters have not lost to the Knights since 2009 at Allianz and beat them 38-0 at the venue last season.
3. The Knights have had a lot of effort go in recently for no results, so they are due a flat performance.
4. The Roosters get some of their Origin players back and will be stronger for that.
5. I just see this game being one-way traffic, with the Roosters winning by more than 20 points.
Cronulla Sharks v South Sydney Rabbitohs @ Shark Park
BET = Sharks -8.5
1. The Sharks have won 4 of their past 5 games against the Rabbitohs at Shark Park.
2. The Rabbitohs have been extremely poor in their last 2 losses against an understrength Roosters and the Cowboys.
3. With James Maloney back, and their Origin players having had a week off, I'm expecting a far more fluent Sharks’ side.
4. The Sharks were not suited by the wet conditions against the Titans last week, and will enjoy playing on a dry track at home.
5. I just think the Sharks have way too much to play for here, with a Top 4 spot being on their minds, so I think they win this game by a couple of tries or more.
Canberra Raiders v Melbourne Storm @ GIO Stadium
BET = Raiders + 6.5
1. The Raiders beat the Storm in Canberra last season at a similar stage in the season 22-8 as they ambushed them in the forwards.
2. This is a must win for the Raiders, which is not the case for Melbourne, so I expect them to be more desperate.
3. The Raiders generally play the Storm better than most sides, having gone down narrowly to them in the Preliminary Final last year 14-12 in Melbourne.
4. 5 of the Storms biggest players are coming off a very demanding Origin series, so they are entitled to be a little tired.
5. I’m not convinced the Raiders can win this game, however I'm expecting them to take confidence from their victory last week and make this game extremely tight.
North Queensland Cowboys v New Zealand Warriors @ 1300 Smiles Stadium
BET = Cowboys -9.5
1. The Warriors lost their last 7 games when Shaun Johnson was ruled out at a similar stage of last season.
2. The Warriors have a terrible record outside New Zealand this year with just 1 victory and a number of heavy defeats.
3. The Cowboys are playing great footy at the moment and, back at home on a fast surface, I expect their attack to really fire this game.
4. The Warriors’ finals hopes are all but over and I’m expecting them to roll over as they usually do when that is the case.
5. I just can't make a case for the Warriors at all here without Shaun Johnson, this game should be a big win for the Cowboys.
St. George Illawarra Dragons v Manly Sea Eagles @ WIN Stadium
BET = Over 40.5 Points
1. The 3 games the Dragons have played at WIN Stadium this season there have been a combined 56 points, 50 points and 50 points, with the games all being high scoring affairs.
2. The Sea Eagles’ attack has been close to the best of the NRL, averaging over 25 points per game in their last 7 games.
3. Earlier this season, when the sides met at Lottoland, there were 45 total match points as the Dragons ran out big 35-10 winners.
4. There were signs of life in the Dragons’ attack last week as they suffered a couple of unlucky breaks, with an intercept try against them, and Josh Dugan going off injured.
5. I just think an afternoon game in Wollongong usually means plenty of points and I see that being the case here.