NRL Round 19 - My Best 5 Bets
New Zealand Warriors v Penrith Panthers @ Mount Smart Stadium
BET = Over 40.5 Total Match Points
1. Earlier this season, when the sides met at Pepper Stadium, points rained freely as Penrith won 36-28.
2. Three of the past 4 games the Warriors have been involved in have combined for comfortably over 40 points.
3. Both these sides are conceding an average of 20 points per game this year.
4. The Warriors’ attack has been better the last 5 games, having scored 129 points at an average of nearly 26 per game.
5. Both these sides like to throw the football around so I am expecting an open game with plenty of tries.
Newcastle Knights v Brisbane Broncos @ McDonald Jones Stadium
BET = Newcastle +9.5
1. The Broncos are banged up a bit here, resting both Matt Gillett and Josh McGuire, and having players backing up from Origin.
2. Newcastle have been competitive at home this year, only losing 2 of their 8 home games by 10 points or more.
3. Brisbane have only won 1 road game from 7 by more than 9 points this season and that was a 10-point victory against the Raiders.
4. With Wayne Bennett having left the Knights on bitter terms, I think the Knights might lift for this game in front of a big home crowd.
5. Newcastle's 2 wins don't reflect their season, and with the Broncos banged up through Origin I expect this to be a close game even if the Knights don't win.
Gold Coast Titans v Cronulla Sharks @ CBUS Super Stadium
BET = Cronulla Sharks -3.5
1. The Sharks are coming off their best performance of the season against the Roosters with their attack finally hitting its straps.
2. I think some of the Sharks’ Origin players will be up for a big game after a few disappointing displays in Origin 3.
3. Whilst the Titans have won their past 2 games, the quality of the games against the Tigers and Dragons wasn't exactly high and they remain rooted in 14th on the ladder.
4. The Sharks, for me, have much more to play for as they want to lock up another Top 4 spot, whilst the Titans’ season appears over.
5. I just think if the Sharks are on their game here, they win this game easily.
Manly Sea Eagles v Wests Tigers @ Lottoland
BET = Wests Tigers + 15.5
1. The Tigers are fresh off a bye and one of their best performances of the season in trouncing the Knights 33-12 in Newcastle.
2. With Tedesco and Woods back from Origin, the Tigers are near full strength for the first time in a while.
3. Manly have been very impressive this season, however their home form has not been great, having not won by 13+ at Lottoland once this season.
4. The Tigers have been more competitive in their last 3 defeats, losing by 4 points against the Dragons, 4 points against the Sharks and 12 points against the Titans.
5. I think Manly win this game fairly comfortably, however 15.5 is a big start to be giving away.
South Sydney Rabbitohs v North Queensland Cowboys
BET = Under 42.5 Points
1. The last 2 occasions these sides have met in Cairns they have been low scoring affairs.
2. The Cowboys have been a more grinding type of team this season, with 6 of their last 9 games containing less than 42 overall match points.
3. The Rabbitohs struggled last week against a severely understrength Roosters’ side, mustering only 12 points.
4. The Cowboys defensively have been pretty stout this year, conceding less than 18 points per game.
5. I just think this game could be a low scoring struggle as it has been in Cairns the past 2 seasons.