State of Origin Decider Preview and Prediction - QLD v NSW @ Suncorp Stadium

Queensland Maroons v NSW Blues @ Suncorp Stadium
 
Preview - It's the biggest game of the Rugby League year as the Maroons and Blues lock horns in an explosive Origin decider at Suncorp Stadium on Wednesday night. It's just the second time in 5 years the series has gone to a deciding game and I'm sure the powers that be at NRL headquarters would be delighted all the chips are on the line tonight. The series was sent to a deciding game after a typically heroic comeback from Queensland salvaged the series in Sydney, prevailing 18-16 courtesy of a late Dane Gagai try and sideline conversion from Johnathan Thurston. The Blues will be kicking themselves as they were seemingly on track at half time, leading 16-6 and in command of a game at home in front of an 80,000 strong NSW crowd, to win just their second series in the past 12 years. Queensland will be looking to their 11th series win in 12 years and this might be the most special if they can achieve it, given so many people wrote them off after their Game 1 shellacking. The Blues will mentally have to pick themselves up off the floor after seemingly having the series in the bag in Sydney.
 
History - The Blues have struggled to win at Suncorp over the past decade, with Queensland winning 8 of the past 10 games there. However, just 6 weeks ago in Game 1, the Blues ran out resounding 28-4 winners at Suncorp on this ground and it should hold no fears for the current side. In perhaps an ominous sign for the Blues, it was way back in 1998 when all three Origin games were won by the away side. The last time the Blues won a decider at Suncorp was back in 2005, as Andrew Johns ran riot in one of his greatest ever performances. 
 
Queensland Maroons’ Scouting Report - Once again it's been far from a smooth build up for the Maroons with changes in key positions forced upon them as they have been throughout the series. Talismanic halfback Johnathan Thurston’s Origin career was cut one game short when he suffered a season ending shoulder injury in Game 2 in Sydney and battled on bravely to finish the game, despite being in obvious discomfort. With Thurston out, Michael Morgan has been elevated from the interchange bench to centre, whilst Cameron Munster is set to make his Origin debut at five-eight. With Munster going into the Number 6 jumper the Melbourne Storm spine of Slater, Munster, Cronk and Smith would be intact. 
 
NSW Blues’ Scouting Report - The Blues have named an unchanged 17, meaning they go through a whole series with the same 17 that began Game 1, in a show of loyalty. However, there have been injury concerns over Captain Boyd Cordner and fellow back rower Tyson Frizzel, with both expected to play. Frizzel failed to finish the Dragons’ game against the Titans, whilst Cordner has not played either Roosters’ game post Origin 2. Once again Mitchell Pearce will be under scrutiny to finally lead the Blues to a series win after his mixed performance in Sydney in Game 2. Largely Pearce has had a solid series, however came under scrutiny for his failure to take command in the final 30 minutes in Sydney as the Blues took a number of poor options in giving up a 10-point lead. Andrew Fifita was much better contained by Queensland in Game 2, limiting the big prop to under 85 metres, and he needs to get back to running hard and straight and not worrying about outside noise. 
 
Verdict - NSW 24 Queensland 18
 
This really has to be the Blues’ time here to win a series, despite it being a very difficult task to win twice at Suncorp in the one Origin campaign. They have been by far the better side for 3 of the 4 halves to date, and that forward pack, if they play fast and direct, is capable of running over the top of the Queensland forwards once again. I think the faster track at Suncorp Stadium actually suits the Blues. Their forwards are far more explosive than Queensland’s and can dominate off a quicker ruck speed.  The Blues seemed to drift away from that style of play in the final 30 minutes in Sydney, losing their way in a tense situation. Queensland, missing Thurston, is a huge blow, and with Munster and Morgan not being designated in-play kickers, NSW should be able to put some pressure on Cronk on last-play options.

I have no doubt Queensland are going to be a lot better than they were back in Game 1 at home, and will look to build off the momentum they have from an upset win in Sydney and back in front of their raucous and passionate fans. I simply can't see them being blown away at Suncorp twice in the one year; however I think they got out of jail in some respects in Sydney. For me, ultimately if the Blues believe they can win and are not mentally scarred from their loss in Sydney, they win this game and bring an end to this great Queensland dynasty. Mitchell Pearce for Man of the Match!