My Best 5 Bets for NRL Round 16
North Queensland Cowboys v Penrith Panthers @ 1300 Smiles Stadium
BET = Over 41.5 Total Match Points
1. A rare daytime game in Townsville will mean there won't be dew on the ground as per the night games.
2. Both these sides love to attack, with the Panthers averaging nearly 30 points per game in their last 4 wins.
3. The Cowboys are also firing in attack of late, having scored an average of 26 points in their last 2 games.
4. 1300 Smiles Stadium is generally one of the faster tracks in the game and that should encourage both sides to throw the ball around and use their skill and footwork.
5. We only get a daytime game in Townsville every couple of years, and I think it’s a recipe for plenty of points. I think both sides can score 20 here, with the Panthers having the ability to score 30.
Canberra Raiders v Brisbane Broncos @ GIO Stadium
BET = Raiders -4.5
1. The Broncos have a poor record in Canberra over the year, winning at less than 33% overall.
2. This is a way more desperate game for Canberra, who need to start stringing some wins together if they hope to make the finals.
3. The Broncos are without their Captain, Darius Boyd, who has been huge for them this season.
4. The Broncos have 2 Origin players backing up, both a chance to be rested.
5. I just think the cold temperatures down in Canberra will suit the home side and they simply have to win this game.
Sydney Roosters v Melbourne Storm @ Adelaide Oval
BET = Over 36.5 Total Match Points
1. The Storm are missing their 4 best players so I don't expect them to be anywhere near as miserly defensively.
2. 4 of the Roosters last 5 games have comfortably gone over 36 total match points.
3. 4 of the last 6 Storm games have comfortably gone over 36 total match points.
4. Both these sides are averaging over 23 points per game in attack this year.
5. I just think this game might be a bit looser than people are predicting given the Origin impact, meaning a few more soft tries than you would usually expect when these sides clash.
St. George Illawarra Dragons v Newcastle Knights @ Jubilee Stadium
BET = Newcastle Knights + 11.5
1. The Dragons form has really fallen off the cliff of late, winning just 2 of their last 7 games.
2. The Dragons’ attack has managed just 28 points in their last 3 games at an average of 9 per game.
3. 7 of the Knights 11 losses this season have been by 10 points or less.
4. Last season, the Knights lost by just 2 points right at the death on the same ground.
5. I think the Dragons will win this game, however their attack has lost its way, and I expect this game to be closer than people expect.
Cronulla Sharks v Manly Sea Eagles @ Shark Park
BET = Manly Sea Eagles +3.5
1. The Sharks have been slow starters all year at home, winning a number of games by less than 3 points.
2. Manly have an outstanding record against the Sharks having won 13 from the past 15 games.
3. The Sharks will be walking wounded for this game, with 5 players backing up from Origin, with some potentially being rested.
4. Manly are fresh off a bye and are currently riding a 3-game winning streak.
5. I just think with Manly's great record against the Sharks, combined with the fact that they are fresher, that they will get an upset win here, or a very narrow defeat at worst.