State Of Origin 2 Preview and Prediction - New South Wales v Queensland @ ANZ Stadium
Origin 2 - NSW v QLD @ ANZ Stadium
Preview - The Blues have the perfect opportunity to wrap up just their second series victory in 12 years when they host a desperate Queensland at ANZ Stadium on Wednesday night. Whilst many predicted the Blues to be a far better side this year, I don't think anyone expected their sheer dominance in Game 1 as they thrashed Queensland 28-4 in their own backyard at Suncorp Stadium. The Blues’ forward pack ran roughshod over the Maroons, with Andrew Fifita putting in an unbelievable display of brute force and skill up front as the Blues tore threads through Queensland through the middle of the ruck. The first half was one of the best Origin displays seen in many a year with its break-neck speed, ferocious tackling and collisions, as well as the fact there was just one error combined from both sides. However, after the break it was all one-way traffic, with the Blues running away with the game as Queensland ran out of gas and out of ideas with the football.
History - Queensland used to have a horror record at ANZ Stadium, however they have gone some way to diminishing that during this period of unprecedented dominance. Despite the fact that overall the Maroons have somewhat of a horror record at the ground, with just 8 wins from 24 games there, they have managed to win 3 from the past 5, as well as 7 from the past 12. Last season, there were 2 games at ANZ Stadium with Queensland winning the crucial Game 1 in what was a dour struggle 6-4. After going 2-0 down in the series, the Blues earned a consolation win in Game 3 with Michael Jennings scoring on the bell to secure an 18-14 victory and avoid a series clean sweep.
NSW Blues’ Scouting Report - It's no surprise to see that NSW Head Coach Laurie Daley and Chief Selector Peter Sterling have named an unchanged side from the one that was so impressive in Game 1. Fullback James Tedesco swept aside some patchy Club form with the Tigers to put in an outstanding display at the back, as he made a number of last ditch saves as well as scoring a try and running the ball with real menace all night. Halves James Maloney and Mitchell Pearce combined well with both scoring tries and organising the team really well in attack. Pearce failed to finish the last 20 minutes after being concussed; however he has the ultimate chance here to put his Origin demons to bed and make a case that he is the dominant halfback in the game, if he can get one over his nemesis Johnathan Thurston and win the Blues the series. Nathan Peats proved his worth in his debut game by lasting 80 minutes, giving the halves good early ball and being physical in defence in Game 1. The Blues back row of Cordner, Frizell and Jackson all performed strongly and will be once again looking to win the collisions against a Queensland pack that has made a number of changes.
Queensland Maroons’ Scouting Report - There were always going to be changes to the Queensland side after their collapse in Game 1, however the sheer scale of the changes has shocked many. Queensland have always beat their chest about their "pick and stick" and loyalty, however Kevin Walters has stunningly swung the axe, making 7 changes for Game 2 and ending the careers of some Origin veterans in the process. I thought it was a terrible decision to omit Billy Slater from Game 1 and the selectors had no choice really but to recall Slater after his superb Club form for the Storm. A great performance in Origin 1 was not enough for Corey Oates to keep his place with Valentine Holmes coming on to the wing, which see Darius Boyd to the centres alongside Will Chambers, with Justin O’Neill dropped after a poor performance in Game 1. Maroons’ talisman, Johnathan Thurston, also returns in place of Anthony Milford after he missed Game 1 through injury. It was the first Origin match Thurston had missed in his whole career and, in his final season of rep football, he will be desperate to put in another masterclass.
The Origin careers of Nate Myles and Sam Thaiday appear to be over with both dropped for Game 2. Kevin Walters has opted for Titans’ enforcer Jarrod Wallace to start at prop, with Gavin Cooper coming into the back row where he can play alongside Johnathan Thurston, his Club team mate. Rampaging Cowboys’ backrower Coen Hess and Storm forward Tim Glasby make their Origin debuts from the interchange bench as Queensland look for far more impact from their forwards, as well as the tighter ruck defence and wrestle offered by Glasby.
Verdict - Blues by 1 or 2 in a low scoring game (13-14 points enough to win the game)
I feel this will be a far different encounter to Game 1 and that Queensland are more than capable of coming to Sydney and ambushing a Blues’ side that are favourites to wrap up the series. However I am going to stick with the Blues given they have a decent record at home and I still think they have a stronger forward pack then Queensland. I like most of the QUeenaldn changes, however 7 is a lot to make and get the side to gel straight away. ANZ Stadium is always a lot heavier and slower surface than Suncorp Stadium, and I think that will suit the Maroons as they attempt to slow down the play the ball and turn the game into a war of attrition. I think the changes Queensland have made also will make them a far more potent force, with Billy Slater a weapon on both sides of the ball. The Maroons’ ruck defence was loose in Game 1 and I expect Slater to marshal his troops a lot better, being known as one of the best defensive organisers in the game from fullback. With the return of Thurston, and with Holmes on the wing, the Maroons have far more strike power and I like the inclusions of young tyros Wallace and Hess to add much needed aggression to their pack.
Having said all that, I still think the Blues can win the battle up front given how impressive and dominant they were in Game 1. I expect them to try and move the Queensland forward pack around and play an open brand of football to try and exploit some of the slower Queensland players. I'm just leaning towards NSW in this game as I think they have to win given he fact they might not fancy their chances up winning the series if Queensland get the momentum up with a win here in Sydney. Queensland will thrive on the backs against the wall mentality, a champion side usually responds and, I don't think they will leave anything in the tank. I'm expecting this game to have a skinny 10 metres, and a lot less ball movement and good football to be played. I expect this game to be decided by 2 points or less and be a lot lower scoring game and dour game than seen at Suncorp Stadium. I feel 14 points is probably enough to win this game and 3 tries will certainly be enough to win.