Origin 1 Preview and Prediction - New South Wales v Queensland @ Suncorp Stadium
Queensland v New South Wales @ Suncorp Stadium
Preview - State of Origin 2017 kicks off on Wednesday night at Suncorp Stadium with Queensland looking to continue their decade long dominance over New South Wales. Last season the Maroons captured a 10th series in 11 years as they ground out a 6-4 win in the opening game in Sydney, before wrapping up the series with a 26-16 triumph in Brisbane. The Blues managed some consolation, winning Paul Gallen's farewell game in Sydney with a last gasp try to Michael Jennings denying the Maroons a clean sweep.
History - It's a well-known fact that Queensland have absolutely owned Origin since they broke a 3-year losing sequence with a victory in the decider in 2006. The Maroons have gone on to win 10 of the past 11 series, only broken in 2014 as New South Wales defended their way to victory in a low scoring series. After 26 years of fairly evenly contested battles between the sides, the Maroons have now forged ahead 22-13 in the overall series, and won 22 of the past 33 Origin games. The Blues have a pretty average record overall at Suncorp Stadium, and the old Lang Park, with just 18 wins compared to 33 losses and 1 draw. However, the Blues have won 9 of the 18 previous series openers in Queensland. They have also won a respectable 8 from 18 series when 2 games have been played in Queensland, with the last time the Blues won a series in 2014 being the last time 2 matches where played in Queensland. Last time the sides met at Suncorp was in Game 2 last year, where the Maroons wrapped up the series 26-16 in a game they controlled throughout.
Queensland Scouting Report - The Maroons side looks as vulnerable as I have seen them for many years, with several senior players unavailable. Two of their senior leaders and most outstanding players over the past 5 seasons in Matt Scott, plus their strike centre Greg Inglis, are both out for the season with injury. In an even more crippling blow, Johnathan Thurston will miss an Origin for the first time since he debuted in Game 1 of 2005. However, the most astounding decision for mine is the non-selection of veteran fullback Billy Slater whose been playing well for Melbourne after nearly two seasons out with injury. I understand the argument that Darius Boyd has done the job the past couple of years and is currently the best fullback in the game, however Slater is getting back to his best and is Queensland’s best fullback of all time. The Maroons have always preached loyalty and I think this is one of the first selections where some of their own players and fans are genuinely miffed that a player of Slater’s quality and experience could not be used even on the wing in a side missing three of its most senior players.
The pressure will be on debutant Anthony Milford who fills in at five eight for the injured Thurston. Whilst Milford is one of the most skilful players in the game, his form has been patchy this year and I expect him defensively to come under huge pressure from some of the Blues’ edge back rowers. The Maroons have senior forwards like Jacob Lillyman and Nate Myles who come into this game after some poor Club form this year. Myles has always lifted for Queensland, however he is getting on in years and if the Maroons were to lose heavily he could be at the end of the road. Justin O’Neill for me is a bit of a weak link at centre and he will be another one under pressure to perform. Having listed plenty of problems for Queensland, they still have Cameron Smith and Cooper Cronk at the peak of their powers and showing no sign of slowing down, despite being right at the tail end of their careers.
New South Wales’ Scouting Report - The Blues have picked a side with plenty of strike power and a forward pack that is both imposing and largely in form. Perhaps the biggest story of this year’s series will be whether Mitchell Pearce can erase past demons and finally lead the Blues to a series victory. Pearce, at 27 years of age, is having the best season of his career and looks a player who is finally in command of this side. Despite having won just 4 of 15 Origins, Pearce has often been an easy whipping boy for Blues’ fans, although it must be said some of his performances at this level have been below what he would have liked. With James Maloney alongside him, I think this is the best halves pairing the Blues have had for a number of years, although Maloney’s Club form this season has been well below his usual standard.
The real strength of this Blues’ side for me is their back row and their options off the bench. With Captain, Boyd Cordner, along with the likes of Josh Jackson, Tyson Frizzle and Wade Graham and Jack Trbojevic, they have really in-form and attacking edge forwards with good leg speed. With Andrew Fifita, the form prop in the competition, the Blues will be looking for a quick ruck speed where they can use their leg speed and skill of the forwards to try and get over the advantage line. Nathan Peats is a player who has emerged in the past couple of seasons as a really tough competitor and gets his big opportunity here starting at hooker, ousting Robbie Farah. I think Peats is a good selection who will have the simple job of giving fast and direct service to his halves to control the game. Whilst James Tedesco is one of the most explosive players in the game I think he comes into this game under some pressure given his average Club form in 2017. Tedesco is very dangerous and fast, however he needs to run a lot straighter and harder than he has been at Club level this year.
Verdict - New South Wales 20-26 / Queensland 16-22
The Blues really should win this game. The Maroons are missing some of their best players and there can be no excuses for a full strength New South Wales team. If this game was in Sydney, I would say the Blues are morals based on the fact that Queensland are missing players, and the fact the Blues have players in form. However, it is a whole different kettle of fish in the cauldron that is Suncorp Stadium and Game 1 of the series. If anything, the pressure is on the Blues because they come into this game without the built in excuses they have had in previous years having played against some great Queensland sides. I would argue the Blues come into this game as favourites, with the Maroons missing the likes of Inglis, Thurston, Scott and Slater, and that brings about a different type of pressure. I think Mitchell Pearce is ready to play a really prominent role in this series; however he will have his own mental demons to overcome.
I think a lot of this game will come down to how the ruck is policed. The Blues will be wanting a fast game with quick play the balls, and the refs to referee this game like a normal NRL game, whilst I think the Maroons will try and slow things down and won't mind a skinny 10 metres and a war of attrition. Often in Origin the refs like to put the whistle away and it can quickly become a completely different spectacle to Club football. The Blues have won 9 penalty counts in 52 games in Queensland, so they should not be expecting any favours on Wednesday night.
I'm expecting this to be a tiger scoring game then many people anticipate. I think Origin in Sydney is usually dour and low scoring with a heavy and slippery track at ANZ Stadium one of the chief reasons for that. However Suncorp is often a fast track and I think the Blues are going to try and attack this year rather then make the mistake of simply trying to defend their way to victory. I think both sides will score 3 tries in this game,but the Blues will get a 4th and win the game by around 6 points.