NRL Round 9 - My Best 5 Bets (Line - Under/Over Total Points)
1. Brisbane Broncos v Penrith Panthers @ Suncorp Stadium
BET = Penrith Panthers +7.5
1. The Panthers have won 4 of their last 5 games against the Broncos, including both games last season.
2. The Panthers desperately need a performance after 3 poor ones against the Storm, Sharks and Eels.
3. Whilst the Broncos have won their last 2 games, they have conceded 4 tries against the struggling Titans and Rabbitohs. Penrith's attack, if it's on, could cause them problems.
4. Brisbane have only beaten a team by more than 7 points once this season.
5. I just think this is D-day for Penrith and, even if they don't win this game, they will lift and lose by 7 or less.
2. South Sydney Rabbitohs v Manly Sea Eagles @ Allianz Stadium
BET = Over 40.5 Points
1. When these 2 teams met earlier this season at Lottoland there were 56 points combined.
2. In 5 of the 8 Rabbitohs games this season there have been over 40 points scored.
3. Manly have conceded 83 points in their last 3 games at an average of over 27 points per game
4. Both these sides like to play attacking football, and are playing with a bit of confidence with the ball this year.
5. I see this being an open attacking game of football, with both defences a bit suspect. With fine weather due in Sydney I think this could be a try-fest.
3. Canterbury Bulldogs v Canberra Raiders @ ANZ Stadium
BET = Bulldogs +6.5
1. The Bulldogs have only lost 1 game by more than 6 points this season.
2. The Bulldogs are the sort of spoiling side that could frustrate the Raiders’ attack, dragging them into the sort of grinding style of game they don't want to play.
3. The Raiders have a poor overall record against the Bulldogs at ANZ Stadium.
4. Usually when the Raiders dominate games it’s because they get a massive roll on up front. I think the Bulldogs can at least match them in the forwards.
5. On a slippery track at ANZ, I just think this sort of surface won’t suit the Raiders and, even if they win the game, I see it being close.
4. Gold Coast Titans v Newcastle Knights @ CBUS Super Stadium
BET = Newcastle +13.5
1. The Knights have only been beaten twice by 13 plus this season and that was against stronger sides in the Panthers and Roosters.
2. The Titans have won 2 games this season and both of those wins were by narrow margins.
3. The Titans’ home form has been patchy this year, with just 1 win from 4 starts.
4. The Titans still have the worst defence in the NRL, so if Newcastle can get 3 tries they are unlikely to get beaten by more than 13.
5. I think the Titans will win this game, however Newcastle are digging in this year and I expect them to score some tries.
5. St. George Illawarra Dragons v Melbourne Storm @ WIN Stadium
BET = Under 36.5 Total Match Points
1. These sides have the 1st and 3rd ranked defences in the game, and have been very hard to break down this year.
2. The Storm are conceding just 12 points per game, while the Dragons are conceding a tick over 14 points per game.
3. 7 of the Storm's 8 games this year have yielded a total of less than 36 points.
4. Without Gareth Widdop, the Dragons’ attack is far less damaging.
5. I just expect both defences to get on top here, and both sides try and grind out a win.