MY 5 Best Bets for NRL Round 8 (Line and Under/Over Total Match Points)

1. Canberra Raiders v Manly Sea Eagles @ GIO Stadium
 
BET = Over 42.5 Total Match points 
 
1. Last year when the sides met in Canberra, the Raiders won 30-18. 
2. When the sides met again at Lottoland in Round 25, the Raiders won 44-30. 
3. The Sea Eagles have conceded 65 points in their last 2 matches and are coming against a Raiders’ attack that is hitting its straps in the last month. 
4. 3 of the 4 matches at GIO Stadium this year have comfortably gone over 42.5 total match points. 
5. I just think this will be a really open and attacking game. Both sides can be defensively a bit suspect and play an adventurous game with plenty of strike weapons with the football.

2. North Queensland Cowboys v Newcastle Knights @ 1300 Smiles Stadium
 
BET = Under 43.5 Total Match Points
 
1. In the Knights’ last 3 games, the total match points have been comfortably under 40 against the Sharks, Bulldogs and Roosters.
2. Both the Cowboys are Knights are averaging Under 20 points a game this year with the football. 
3. The Cowboys have been off the boil at home this year, scoring just 64 points at an average of 16 per game.
4. 5 of the Cowboys 7 games this season have fallen under 43.5 total match points. 
5. I just think the Cowboys, without Thurston, are far more likely to grind out a win than blow the Knights off the paddock. Newcastle are playing a lot tougher this year. 
 
3. Cronulla Sharks v Gold Coast Titans @ Shark Park
 
BET = Over 38.5 Points
 
1. When the sides met last year at Shark Park, the Sharks escaped with a 25-20 win in a game that was full of action. 
2. The Titans’ defence is far from solid this year, conceding 206 points in their first 7 games at an average of just under 30 a game.
3. Both sides are averaging over 20 points a game in attack this season.
4. The Sharks often struggle a bit against the Titans, and after a couple of massive wins against the Storm and Panthers, with unbelievable defensive efforts, they could be a little flat here in this game. 
5. The Sharks are starting to really hit top gear, and they have not been at their best at home this year. I think they are due to click and put on a big score in front of their home fans.
 
4. Sydney Roosters v St. George Illawarra Dragons @ Allianz Stadium
 
BET - Dragons +3.5
 
1. The Dragons sit on top of the competition ladder and, having lost just 1 game all year, their form is real.
2. Despite the comfortable win over the Knights last week, the Roosters form has been patchy in the last 3 weeks with losses to Manly and Brisbane.
3. Traditionally, this is a very tight game so getting +3.5 points head start for a side sitting on top of the competition ladder is generous in my opinion. 
4. The Dragons have the best differential in the NRL this season at +87, whilst the Roosters side on just +22
5. There is no doubt this game is going to be a cracker. I think the Dragons can win, and if they lose it might only be by 2 points.
 
5. Melbourne Storm v New Zealand Warriors
 
BET = Storm - 10.5
 
1. The Storm have already beaten the Warriors by 16 points this year in New Zealand.
2. Despite playing well last week, the Warriors will lose another road game by more than 10 points.
3. Last season in this clash, the Storm demolished the Warriors 42-0.
4. The Storm were off their game defensively last week, and I think Craig Bellamy would be getting stuck into them here. They have conceded just 29 points per game at an average of under 10 points per game. 
5. I just think if Melbourne can match the Warriors early, they will run over the top of them in the 2nd half. The Warriors have not shown enough on the road for me to prove they can go with a full strength Melbourne side for 80 minutes.