NRL Round 7 - My Best 5 Bets

1. Newcastle Knights v Sydney Roosters @ McDonald Jones Stadium

BET = Roosters - 11.5

1. The Roosters are coming off two particularly poor performances, so, needing a victory here, I expect them to come out firing.

2. Newcastle has had several narrow defeats this year. That takes its toll mentally and I think they are due for a flat performance. 

3. When the teams met last year, the Roosters were far too good winning 38-0, and this was in a year the Roosters finished 15th.

4. The Roosters’ style of football will trouble the Knights defensively. They have a lot more weapons and silky set plays across the park than what the Bulldogs did last week. 

5. I think the Roosters are a Top 4 side this year and, after a couple of off weeks, Newcastle is going to face a fired up Roosters’ side which could spell bad news. 

2. Manly Sea Eagles v Melbourne Storm @ Lottoland

BET = Melbourne - 4.5

1. There are rumours that both Jesse Bromwich and Cameron Munster could be back for this game, which would make Melbourne at full strength for the first time this year.

2. The Storm was poor last week and they rarely put in back-to-back poor performances. 

3. Manly's home form has been a real concern this year. They have won just 1 from 4 and been blown out by the Dragons and Souths.

4. Last year when the sides met at Lottoland, the Storm ran out convincing 38-18 winners. 

5. I just think Manly don't have the quality to go with Melbourne at full strength. The Storm to win by more than a try. 

3. St. George Illawarra Dragons v North Queensland Cowboys @ Win Stadium

BET = Under 38.5 Points

1. The Cowboys are missing Jonathan Thurston which will really limit them in terms of guile and threat in the opposition red zone. 

2. The Dragons are conceding less than 14 points per game this season.

3. Last season when the sides met at the same venue, with the Cowboys missing Thurston, the game turned into a similarly low scoring struggle, with the Dragons prevailing 14-10. 

4. The Dragons lead the NRL in attack which is a fantastic effort. However, I am not sure they can keep that up for the whole season. 

5. The Dragons are comfortable sitting on a lead. If they get out to a 10-12 point break, with this being a night game, I expect them to just knuckle down and grind out a win. 

4. Canberra Raiders v New Zealand Warriors @ GIO Stadium

BET = Over 45.5 Points

1. In 3 of their past 5 games the Raiders have been involved in games with a combined score of over 50 points, and in another one of those 5 games there were 48 points. 

2. The Warriors are conceding over 20 points per game in defence, and 5 of those 6 games were at home. 

3. The Raiders attack is really coming together having racked up 46, 30 and 48 in 3 of their last 4 games.

4. Both these sides love to throw the football around, which will result in a very open and attacking game. 

5. GIO Stadium in Canberra is a fast track and I see this being a real points fest on a Saturday night.

5. Parramatta Eels v Wests Tigers @ ANZ Stadium

BET = Parramatta Eels -3.5

1. The Tigers have already been beaten 4 times by more than 3 points this year. When they lose they tend to get blown out.

2. Despite their victory last week, I'm not convinced by the Tigers form. The Cowboys could not have played much worse last week, turning the ball over and playing with a lack of intensity. 

3. I just think Parramatta can really get on top in the forwards in this game. They have a far better back row and bench than the Tigers. 

4. I still think there is a bit too much going on at the Tigers for them to string games together. Mitchell Moses, by all reports, is playing his last game for the Club and Tedesco and Woods are still making up their minds. 

5. In the corresponding game last year Parramatta ground out an 8-0 victory against the Tigers.