My Best 5 NRL Bets For Round 4 (Line, Unders/Overs)
1. Brisbane Broncos v Canberra Raiders @ Suncorp Stadium
BET = Under 41.5 Points
1. Last year when these two sides clashed there were just 16 points in the first game, with Canberra winning 12-4, and 36 points at Suncorp where the Broncos won 24-12.
2. There has been plenty of rain around Brisbane and that is expected to continue into Friday making it tough to play open and attacking football.
3. Last weekend both these teams defended outstandingly, with the Raiders conceding just 6 points and the Broncos 14 points.
4. With both teams sitting at 1-2, this is a really high stakes game for two teams with high expectations this season. I think this might mean they look to hold on to the football and play a safety first game plan.
5. Expect this to be one of the games of the week. I think the Raiders are just starting to hit their straps, so I am hoping for a real battle of the forward packs here, with plenty of big hits and good goal line defence on a heavy track.
2. Manly Sea Eagles v Canterbury Bulldogs @ Brookvale Oval
BET = Bulldogs - 1.5
1. Despite their victory last week which was impressive, Manly were playing a vastly understrength Cowboys’ team.
2. Brookvale Oval is far from the graveyard it was for opposition teams under Hasler and Toovey, with Trent Barrett’s men winning just 4 of their last 12 at the venue and 0 wins from 2 this year.
3. Given the never ending wet weather in Sydney, I think it can get right not op here of a pretty average Manly pack and win the field position battle.
4. The Bulldogs’ form line has been pretty good this year. They pushed the Storm and Roosters all the way who are both undefeated, and they were pretty comfortable winners in at tricky road trip to Dunedin last week.
5. The Bulldogs have scored 9 tries in the last 2 weeks in slippery conditions. Des Hasler has changed aspects of their attack with Michael Lichaa running the ball and the outside backs getting some more clean early ball.
3. Parramatta Eels v Cronulla Sharks @ ANZ Stadium
BET = Parramatta Eels - 1.5
1. On what is likely to be a slippery surface at ANZ Stadium, I think the Parramatta forwards can get on top.
2. Getting Corey Norman back is huge for the Eels. They looked close to the best side in the competition with him there over the opening two weeks.
3. The Sharks have lacked intensity and energy in two of their opening four games. I think that is a bit of worry. I sort of know what I’m going to get with Parramatta I feel, but I am a bit unsure about Cronulla.
4. The Eels’ defence has been pretty solid so far, conceding just 16 points per game.
5. ANZ I still think can provide a good game advantage here for the Eels. It’s their first official game at their new full time home ground for the next few years so I’m expecting a big ground to get behind them and maybe earn them a few home town penalties.
4. Wests Tigers v Melbourne Strom @ Leichhardt Oval
BET = Under 42.5 Points
1. Surely there will be some sort of reaction here from the Tigers after the sacking of Jason Taylor and their woeful defensive efforts in the past two weeks.
2. The Storm are missing two of their biggest strike weapons in Cameron Munster and Sisal Vunivalu. They are likely to try and grind out a win here.
3. Leichhardt Oval is likely to be a bog with almost three straight weeks of rain in Sydney and the Tigers have a good record of either beating the Storm there or pushing them close.
4. The Tigers have managed just 1 try in the past 2 weeks and that was an intercept. Melbourne are conceding just 10 points per game so their defence should comfortably handle them.
5. Last year when these teams met in similar conditions at Leichhardt, it was a low scoring grind with a Cooper Cronk field goal being the difference as the Storm won 17-16.
5. St George Illawarra Dragons v New Zealand Warriors @ Kogarah Oval
BET = Dragons +1.5
1. The Dragons have an incredibly imposing record against the Warriors, winning 19 from 24 overall.
2. The Warriors are yet to play on the road this year, where they had a dismal record last season.
3. The Dragons form has been pretty rock solid in the opening three rounds. They appear a side playing for each other and far more consistent across the 80 minutes than the NZ Warriors.
4. The Dragons have won 9 of their last 13 games at their traditional home grounds, and always enjoy a strong home ground advantage at Kogarah.
5. I expect Kieran Foran to be rusty in this game. If it's wet and slippery, expect that to suit the Dragons and them to get on top of the Warriors in the forwards.