NFL - My Best 5 Bets for Week 12

Jacksonville Jaguars (7-3) @ Arizona Cardinals (4-6) - University of Phoenix Stadium
 
BET = Arizona Cardinals +4.5
 
I know the Jaguars are 7-3, however they have found a way to scrape over the line in a number of games this season. Whilst there is no doubt their defence is elite, their offense is far from that and could only muster 13 points last week against the Browns, before a late defensive touchdown sealed the win. The Cardinals have been ok at home this season, winning 2 from 5, and with a narrow loss to Seattle in there. I just think the most likely result of this game is either team wins by a field goal, so I’m happy to back the Cardinals at home with 4.5 start. 
 
Carolina Panthers (7-3) @ New York Jets (4-6) - MetLife Stadium
 
BET = Carolina Panthers - 4.5
 
I really like the Panthers here against a Jets’ side that has been brave this year, but lacks quality. I watched the Panthers in their last start and I think they’re a side that is about to make big run in the second half of the season. Cam Newton looked close to being back to his 2015 form and swagger in a 4-touchdown display against the Dolphins, and he is one of the best multi-purpose quarterbacks in the NFL when his confidence is up. The Panthers also have a Top 10 defence, and I just think the Jets, having really fought hard this year, could be about to hit the wall, while the Panthers need to keep winning given they are in the strongest division in the NFL this season, the NFC South. 
 
Cleveland Browns (0-10) @ Cincinnati Bengals (4-6) - Paul Brown Stadium
 
BET = Over 37.5 Points ($1.87) 
 
The two Ohio rivals clash here in Cincinnati and I’m expecting the formbook to go out the window as it is here in a rivalry game. The Browns were horrible last week, however they did manage to put up 24 points in their last away game against the Lions a couple of weeks ago. The Bengals have gone 4-3 since a terrible start to the season and, whilst their offense hasn't exactly been firing, they will fancy themselves against the porous Browns’ defence. I just think, with both sides struggling, 37 points seems too few in game where the Browns especially will attack with very little to lose. 
 
Miami Dolphins (4-6) @ New England Patriots (8-2) - Gillette Stadium
 
BET = Under 48.5 Points
 
I think this is a good bet as the Dolphins are going badly at the moment and I struggle to see them scoring a touchdown here. The Patriots are only conceding 14 points game in their last 6 games, and their defence handled a dangerous Oakland side very easily last week, holding them to 8 points. I just think if the Patriots get out to an early lead here they might not take any risks and run the ball and chew the clock against a side that doesn't look capable of coming back at them. The Pats’ defence has been much maligned this year, however they are playing much better now and I can see them winning this game by 30-7 or 33-10 and us getting a good run for our money on the unders. 
 
Houston Texans (3-6) @ Baltimore Ravens (5-5) - M&T Bank Stadium
 
BET = Over 37.5 Points
 
I understand both these offences are not high powered, however 37.5 is a low point line and I have to take it on. In 5 of the last 6 Ravens’ games, there have been over 37 total match points including racking up 40 points in their last home game against the Dolphins. Similarly 5 of the last 6 Texans’ games have gone well over 37 total match points and, whilst they do not have DeShaun Watson anymore, last week they managed an impressive 31-21 victory over the Cardinals. I think if we get a couple of early scores here this game could comfortably go over 37 points.