NFL - My 5 Best Bets for Week 11

Jacksonville Jaguars (6-3) @ Cleveland Browns (0-9) - Browns Stadium
 
BET = Cleveland Browns +7.5
 
I just don't trust the Jaguars as a heavy favourite, especially on the road. Last week the Jaguars were lucky to beat the struggling Chargers at home, who really dominated that game for the majority before inexplicably blowing it at the end. The Browns have been mostly awful again this year, however they are generally competitive at home and this is a game I feel they have an outside chance of winning. They played well at Detroit last week and were right in there until the final five minutes, before the score blew out a little at the end, as they went down 38-24, with DeShone Kizer having his best start at quarterback for Cleveland. Not sure the Browns can win; however I expect them to be competitive and the 7.5 start on offer seems big. 
 
Kansas City Chiefs (6-3) @ New York Giants (1-9) - MetLife Stadium
 
BET = Kansas City Chiefs - 10.5
 
I hate swallowing big starts, however the New York Giants appear to have given up this year. I don't say that lightly, however in the last few weeks I have seen guys on the Giants that could have made tackles not show a lot of effort. There is a lot of dissension in the ranks with the Head Coach, with players grumbling behind the scenes. Ben McAdoo seems like a lame duck coach just waiting to be fired. The Giants are now right in contention for the Number 1 draft pick, so I essentially expect them to tank for the rest of the season. The Chiefs have been a bit patchy of late; however, they remain a serious playoff team and I expect them to win this game easily by a couple touchdowns or more. 
 
 
Philadelphia Eagles (8-1) @ Dallas Cowboys (5-4) 
 
BET = Dallas Cowboys +4.5
 
Dallas seems to be one of my stable runners this year. I know they were awful this week, however they are back at home here against a Divisional rival in a game they need to win. The Eagles are sitting pretty at 8-1 so I don't expect them to have the same level of desperation as the Cowboys for this game. I expect Dak Prescott to be far better than he was in Atlanta and, whilst I’m not convinced the Cowboys will win this game, I think if they do lose it will be by a field goal so we will take the points given here at home. 
 
Los Angeles Rams (7-2) @ Minnesota Vikings (7-2) - U.S Bank Stadium
 
BET = Under 45.5 Total Match Points 
 
These are perhaps the two biggest surprise teams in the NFL, as the Rams visit the Vikings in an explosive match-up between two high-flying NFC teams. I'm just expecting this game to be really physical and low scoring given both teams have run the ball well at times this season. I know both these teams have put up good numbers on offense this year, however the Vikings especially have an elite defence, especially at home, and I expect them to make life difficult for the Rams here. 
 
Atlanta Falcons (5-4) @ Seattle Seahawks (6-3) - Safeco Field
 
BET = Over 44.5 Points 
 
We saw last week the Falcons’ offence finally start to click into gear in a dominant win over the Cowboys. Seattle have mixed form this year, with little running game to speak of. However, without that running game it means the quarterback Russell Wilson is throwing the ball more, and that has led to them being involved in some high scoring games of late. The track in Seattle is artificial grass which plays fast, so i expect both quarterbacks to be flinging the ball down the field and both teams capable of scoring 20 plus points.